全球主要国家和地区新冠病毒变异株流行趋势分析  

Analysis of Global Epidemic Trends of SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Major Countries and Regions

作　　者：曹润冬 冯晔囡 陈操[1] CAO Rundong;FENG Yenan;CHEN Cao(National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,NHC Key Laboratory for Medical Virology and Viral Diseases,National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,国家卫生健康委员会医学病毒与病毒病重点实验室,中国疾病预防控制中心病毒病预防控制所,北京102206

出　　处：《病毒学报》2025年第1期1-5,共5页Chinese Journal of Virology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(项目号:2023YFC2306000),题目:重要病毒变异规律和预测预警研究;国家自然科学基金(项目号:82341035,82341034),题目:高强度流行期间我国主要奥密克戎变异株进化特征研究,高强度流行期间主要新冠变异株感染与再感染特征研究;新冠病毒变异株风险研判及数据共享研究(项目号:GJJKJ-2023)。

摘　　要：2024年夏季以来,全球新冠病毒新变异株演化流行呈现明显地区差异,本文主要分析了全球主要国家和地区新冠病毒变异株流行趋势并研判其在我国的流行趋势。6月17日至7月28日,全球主要流行新冠变异株为KP.2及其亚分支、KP.3.1.1及其亚分支和KP.3其他进化分支。其中,KP.3.1.1及其亚分支占比显著上升;欧洲与北美洲国家整体呈现出的变异株流行趋势与全球相似;亚洲国家主要以KP.3及其亚分支为主,但KP.3.1.1的流行仍处于极低水平;大洋洲国家KP.3及其亚分支占比呈升高趋势,但KP.3.1.1的流行未见明显升高;南美洲国家的变异株流行占比与全球显著不同,具有明显的区域特色。因此,今冬明春KP.2和KP.3及其亚分支可能会在全球继续广泛流行,且KP.3.1.1及其亚分支可能会成为欧洲与北美地区的优势变异株,亚洲等其他地区不排除KP.3.1.1占比升高的可能性。虽然我国本土KP.3及其亚分支的流行仍处于极低水平,但占比也处于升高趋势,未来可能与占比逐渐升高的KP.2、LB.1及其亚分支同步或更持久的流行。Since the summer of 2024,significant regional disparities in the global prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants have emerged.This paper primarily analyses the global epidemic trends of SARS-CoV-2 variants in major countries and regions with an assessment of potential trends in China..From June 17 to July 28,the predominant variants globally were KP.2 and its sub-lineages,KP.3.1.1 and its sub-lineages,and other evolutionary branches of KP.3.Among these,the proportion of KP.3.1.1 and its sub-variants increased significantly.In Europe and North America,the trends in variant prevalence were generally consistent with global patterns.In Asia,KP.3 and its sub-lineages predominated,but the prevalence of KP.3.1.1 remained extremely low.In Oceania,KP.3 and its sub-lineages showed an increasing trend,while KP.3.1.1 did not exhibit a notable rise.In South America,the prevalence trends of variants differed significantly from global patterns,displaying distinct regional characteristics.Based on these observations,KP.2 and KP.3 along with their sub-lineages,are likely to continue circulating widely worldwide during the upcoming autumn and spring.KP.3.1.1 and its sub-lineages may become the dominant variants in Europe and North America,while the proportion of KP.3.1.1 in Asia and other regions may also increase.Although the prevalence of KP.3 and its subvariants in China remains at a very low level,the proportions is showing an upward trend.Future co-circulation or prolonged persistence alongside the increasing proportions of KP.2,LB.1,and their sub-lineages cannot be ruled out.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒 变异株 全球 流行趋势 

分 类 号：R373.9[医药卫生—病原生物学] R211[医药卫生—基础医学]