京津冀地区水资源压力时空演变特征及驱动因素  

Spatio‑temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of water resources stress in the Beijing‑Tianjin‑Hebei region

作　　者：彭晓凤 夏军[1,2] 刁艺璇 孙蓝心 PENG Xiaofeng;XIA Jun;DIAO Yixuan;SUN Lanxin(State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;Institute of Water Security,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源工程与调度全国重点实验室,湖北武汉430072 [2]武汉大学水安全研究院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《武汉大学学报(工学版)》2025年第2期171-181,共11页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金长江水科学研究联合基金项目(编号:U2340213)。

摘　　要：采用考虑入境水量的水资源压力指数(water stress index,WSI)定量评估2000—2022年京津冀地区水资源压力,利用空间相关分析方法评估该地区调水前后水资源压力的时空演变格局,采用偏相关系数法探讨京津冀地区内各城市WSI年际变化的驱动因素。结果表明:京津冀地区长期承受较高的水资源压力,且高用水地区与水资源丰富区不一致,加剧了水资源供需矛盾;调水工程和节水措施的实施明显缓解了京津冀地区水资源压力,但仅承德市水资源压力等级发生改变,该地区仍面临着极高水资源压力;在空间分布上,京津冀地区的水资源压力呈显著的空间集聚现象,调水工程实施后,部分地区的压力得到缓解,但南部地区由于自身水资源条件限制,仍面临较高压力;偏相关分析表明,降水增加显著缓解水资源压力,在社会经济方面,水资源压力与经济发展之间存在复杂的双向关系,有效的水资源管理和产业结构优化是实现可持续发展的重要途径。研究可为京津冀地区水资源的高效合理利用及城市群可持续高质量发展提供参考。In this study,the water stress index(WSI),which takes into account water inflow,is used to quantitatively evaluate the water resources stress in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2000 to 2022.The spatial-temporal evolution pattern of water resources stress in this region before and after water diversion is evaluated by using spatial correlation analysis method,and the partial correlation coefficient method is adopted to explore the driving factors for the inter-annual variation of WSI in each city in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The results show that the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has been under high water resources pressure for a long time,and the areas with high water use are inconsistent with the areas with abundant water resources,which intensifies the contradiction between the supply and demand of water resources.The implementation of water diversion projects and water-saving measures has significantly alleviated the water resource pressure in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,but only the water stress level has changed in Chengde City,which is still facing extremely high water resource stress.In terms of spatial distribution,the water resources pressure in the BeijingTianjin-Hebei region shows a significant spatial agglomeration phenomenon.After the implementation of water diversion projects,the stress in some areas has been alleviated,but the southern region still faces relatively high stress due to its own water resource constraints.Partial correlation analysis indicates that precipitation increase significantly alleviates water stress,and there is a complex bidirectional relationship between water stress and economic development in social and economic aspects.Effective water resource management and optimization of industrial structure are important ways to achieve sustainable development.This study can provide reference for the efficient and rational utilization of water resources and the sustainable and high-quality development of urban agglomerations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.

关 键 词：京津冀地区 水资源压力指数 时空演变 偏相关系数 驱动因素 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]