基于KMV模型的地方政府债务违约风险实证研究——以浙江省为例  

Empirical Study on Local Government Debt Default Risk Based on KMV Model——Taking Zhejiang Province as an Example

作　　者：蔡吟茜 CAI Yinxi(Wenzhou Polytechnic,325035,Wenzhou,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]温州职业技术学院,浙江温州325035

出　　处：《特区经济》2025年第2期73-76,共4页Special Zone Economy

基　　金：温州市哲学社会科学规划课题“地方政府债务风险及财政优化路径研究”(23WSK176YBM)。

摘　　要：本文利用KMV风险评估模型,使用1978—2023年的浙江省财政收入和GDP历史数据预测了2024—2025年浙江省政府可偿债收入和政府债务违约风险,并且进行了不同偿债规模下的风险测试。研究结果表明,浙江省政府债务未来两年在安全可控范围,文末从优化政府债务管理的角度提出政府可偿债收入应该大于总财政收入的7%,以及控制到期债务比例在90%以下的建议。Based on the KMV risk assessment model,this paper utilizes the historical data of fiscal revenue and GDP of Zhejiang Province from 1978 to 2023 to forecast the government debt repayment income and govern⁃ment debt default risk of Zhejiang Province from 2024 to 2025.It also conducts risk tests under different debt repayment scales.The results indicate that the government debt of Zhejiang Province will remain within a safe and controllable range in the next two years.From the perspective of optimizing government debt man⁃agement,it is recommended that the government’s debt repayment revenue should exceed 7%of the total fiscal revenue,and the proportion of mature debt should be kept below 90%.

关 键 词：KMV模型 政府债务违约风险 政府可偿债收入 

分 类 号：F832.7[经济管理—金融学]