家庭老年照料、老年照料成本与农业转移人口市民化意愿  

Family Elderly Care,Elderly Care Costs and the Willingness of the Agricultural Migrant Population to Be Urban Residents

作　　者：张永奇 单德朋[2] Zhang Yongqi;Shan Depeng(College of Economics,Sichuan Agricultural University,Chengdu 611130,China;Department of Economics,Southwest Minzu University,Chengdu 610041,China)

机构地区：[1]四川农业大学经济学院,四川成都611130 [2]西南民族大学经济学院,四川成都610041

出　　处：《当代经济管理》2025年第3期41-52,共12页Contemporary Economic Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“县域富民产业促进乡村振兴重点帮扶县农村中低收入群体增收对策研究”(23AJY015);西南民族大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(CNRMR20240004)。

摘　　要：文章采用多组数据实证检验了家庭老年照料与农业转移人口市民化意愿的关联。研究发现:第一,农村劳动力人口外流并未有效缓解老年照料需求与家庭照料资源不足的矛盾。家庭仍是老年照料的主要场域。第二,家庭老年照料负担效果明显,从而抑制了农业转移人口市民化意愿。第三,异质性分析表明,家庭老年照料对农业转移人口市民化意愿的影响在群体与城市间具有显著差异。老年群体自我照料能力的维持以及城市养老基本公共服务的完善将降低家庭老年照料的负担效应。过往的流动时限与后续迁移决策之间具有非线性关系。第四,机制检验发现,老年照料成本是抑制农业转移人口市民化意愿的底层原因。老年照料成本的提升,将加剧农业转移人口的预期与实际压力,调低此类群体市民化意愿。第五,利用数字经济的低成本、广覆盖等优势,能够促进数据共享与加强动态监测,推动老年照料成本的分摊设计。上述结论,不仅可以调整家庭老年照料的责任主体,提升农业转移人口市民化意愿与期望收益,也能够降低老年照料中的普遍冲击与客观潜在风险,加快推进城乡融合与区域协调发展,从而起到事半功倍的效果。Based on the intersection scenario of population aging and the democratization of the agricultural migrant population in China,the association between family elder care and the willingness of the agricultural migrant population to be urbanized is empirically examined using multiple sets of data.The study finds that,first,the exodus of the rural labor force has not effectively alleviated the contradiction between the demand for elderly care and the insufficiency of family care resources.The family is still the main field of elderly care.Second,the effect of family elderly care burden is obvious,thus inhibiting the willingness of the agricultural migrant population to become city citizens.Third,heterogeneity analysis shows that the economic effect of family elderly care on the willingness of being urbanized is significantly different between groups and cities.The self-care ability of the elderly group and the improvement of basic public services for the elderly in cities will reduce the burden effect of family elder care.There is a non-linear relationship between past mobility time frame and subsequent migration decision.Fourth,the mechanism test finds that the cost of elderly care is the underlying reason that inhibits the willingness of the agricultural migrant population to live in cities.Elevated elderly care costs will exacerbate the expected and actual pressures on the agricultural migrant population and dampen the willingness of such groups to live in cities.Fifth,utilizing the advantages of the digital economy,such as low cost and wide coverage,can promote data sharing and strengthen dynamic monitoring,and promote the design of sharing the cost of elderly care.The above conclusions can not only adjust the main body of responsibility for elderly care in the family,but also enhance the willingness and expected benefits of the agricultural migrant population;it can also reduce the general shock and objective potential risks in elderly care,and accelerate urban-rural integration and coordinated development in t

关 键 词：家庭老年照料 农业转移人口 照料成本 市民化意愿 数字经济监测 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济]