基于贝叶斯网络的区域多制式轨道交通网络韧性评估  

Resilience Assessment of a Regional Multi-Modal Rail Transit Network Based on Bayesian Network

作　　者：刘婧蕾 彭其渊[1,2] 陈锦渠 LIU Jinglei;PENG Qiyuan;CHEN Jinqu(School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,Sichuan,China;National United Engineering Laboratory of Integrated and Intelligent Transportation,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,Sichuan,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都611756 [2]西南交通大学综合交通运输智能化国家地方联合工程实验室,四川成都611756

出　　处：《铁道运输与经济》2025年第3期151-160,共10页Railway Transport and Economy

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFB4300502)。

摘　　要：区域多制式轨道交通在服务区域经济发展、促进区域融合等方面发挥着重要作用。然而,如何保证多制式轨道交通网络在多种干扰的影响下,提供高效稳定的运输服务,是当前亟待解决的关键问题之一。因此,选择以区域多制式轨道交通网络韧性为研究视角,分别从宏观层、中间层及微观层分析影响韧性的因素,结合解释结构模型和基于专家先验知识的最大后验估计法,构建基于贝叶斯网络的韧性评估模型,并利用敏感度分析识别影响网络韧性的关键因素;最后,以成都多制式轨道交通网络为例验证了模型的有效性。结果表明,该模型不仅能从概率角度对区域多制式轨道交通网络韧性进行评估,还可识别影响网络韧性的关键因素,有助于相关部门在节约人力物力的前提下高效提升韧性。The regional multi-modal rail transit system plays an important role in serving regional economic development and promoting regional integration.However,how to ensure that the multimodal rail transit network can provide efficient and stable transport service under the influence of various disturbances is one of the key problems to be solved urgently.By studying the resilience of a regional multi-modal rail transit network,this paper analyzed the factors affecting resilience from the macro level,the intermediate level,and the micro level,respectively.By combining the interpretative structural model and the maximum posteriori estimation method based on the prior knowledge of experts,a resilience assessment model based on the Bayesian network was proposed,and sensitivity analysis was used to identify the key factors affecting the network’s resilience. Finally, the effectiveness of the model was verified by studying the multi-modal railtransit network in Chengdu. The results show that the model can not only assess the resilience ofthe regional multi-modal rail transit network from a probabilistic perspective but also identify keyinfluencing factors of the network’s resilience. The obtained result helps relevant departmentsimprove the resilience of a multi-modal rail transit network under the premise of saving manpowerand material resources.

关 键 词：韧性 贝叶斯网络 区域多制式轨道交通网络 解释结构模型 基于专家先验知识的最大后验估计法 

分 类 号：U239.5[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]