云南省输入性虫媒传染病公共卫生风险评估  

Public health risk assessment of imported vector-borne diseases in Yunnan province

作　　者：江婷婷 顾大勇[2] 张建庆 俞文锦 李节 王宇平[1,3] JIANG Tingting;GU Dayong;ZHANG Jianqing;YU Wenjin;LI Jie;WANG Yuping(School of Public Health,Fujian Medical University,Fuzhou,Fujian 350122,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]福建医科大学公共卫生学院,福建福州350122 [2]深圳大学 [3]福州国际旅行卫生保健中心 [4]云南国际旅行卫生保健中心

出　　处：《中国国境卫生检疫杂志》2025年第1期23-26,共4页Chinese Journal of Frontier Health and Quarantine

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC2302700);广东省科技计划项目(2023B0101200003,2022B1111020001,2021A1515220084,2020JD076);深圳市科技计划项目(KJZD20230923115359001,JSGG20220301090003004,ZDSYS20210623092001003,JCYJ20200109120205924);深圳大学医工交叉研究基金(2023YG009);广西研究生教育创新计划项目(JGY2023168);深港科技创新合作(HTHZQSWS-KCCYB-2023060)。

摘　　要：目的构建虫媒传染病跨境传入云南省的风险体系,为做好输入性虫媒传染病的监控预警提供依据。方法通过文献查阅、专家咨询和小组讨论,初步构建云南省虫媒传染病输入风险和引发本地传播风险评价指标池,以此为基础制定咨询问卷。采用德尔菲法确定评估的指标,通过两轮专家咨询修改并确立指标体系;应用层次分析法确定各风险因素发生的可能性及其权重,形成判断矩阵并进行一致性检验,综合评估虫媒传染病的风险大小。结果邀请26位专家进行两轮德尔菲函询,问卷回收率100%。两轮协调系数(W)分别为0.272(χ^(2)=73.336,P<0.05)和0.431(χ^(2)=271.266,P<0.05),计算并纳入加权平均值≥3.3的因素指标,最终确定5个准则层和17个指标层。采用层次分析法计算指标的权重。准则层有传染源、媒介种类、媒介适生能力、人群易感性和预防控制措施,权重分别为0.3496、0.1693、0.2193、0.2082和0.0537;指标层权重较高的因素有周边国家疫情情况、温度和人口流动性,权重分别为0.1634、0.1880和0.1561。综合风险等级评价标准得出输入云南省高风险虫媒传染病共11种,低风险虫媒传染病11种。结论利用德尔菲法建立输入性虫媒传染病传播风险评估体系,为评估云南输入性虫媒传染病传播风险等级和预防控制提供科学依据。Objective To build a risk system of the importation of vector-borne diseases into Yunnan province,to provide a basis for monitoring and early warning of such diseases.Methods An index pool to evaluate both the risk of vector-borne disease importation and local transmission in Yunnan was primarily established through literature review,expert consultation and team discussion.Subsequently,a consultation questionnaire based on these indexes was formulated.Delphi method was employed to refine the evaluation index system through two rounds of expert consultations aimed at modifying and establishing a comprehensive indices.The analytic hierarchy process was utilized to assess the likelihood of occurrence for each index along with its corresponding weight,form a judgment matrix and conduct consistency tests to comprehensively evaluate the risk of vector-borne diseases.Results Twenty-six experts participated in two rounds of Delphi correspondence with a 100%response rate for the questionnaires.The Kendall's concordance coefficient(W)from both rounds were 0.272(χ^(2)=73.336,P<0.05)and 0.431(χ^(2)=271.266,P<0.05),respectively.The indices with weighted averages≥3.3 were computed and included in the analysis leading to the identification of 5 items in criteria levels and 17 items in indicator levels overall.Utilizing analytic hierarchy process allowed us to calculate weights for these indices in criteria levels,infectious sources(weight=0.3496),vector types(weight=0.1693),vector fitness(weight=0.2193),population susceptibility(weight=0.2082),and preventive/control measures(weight=0.0537).Among items in indicator levels with higher weights were epidemic situations in neighboring countries(weight=0.1634),temperature(weight=0.1880),population mobility patterns(weight=0.1561).The comprehensive risk level evaluation criteria identified 11 kinds of high-risk vector-borne diseases alongside 11 kinds of low-risk ones.Conclusion The transmission risk assessment system for imported vector-borne diseases established by using Delphi

关 键 词：虫媒传染病 输入风险 德尔菲法 层次分析法 指标体系 

分 类 号：R183.5[医药卫生—流行病学]