2014—2023年沧州市布鲁菌病流行特征及空间聚集性分析  

Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of brucellosis in Cangzhou,2014-2023

作　　者：张晓彤 郑炎 张怡 兰艳芳 吴秉伦[1] 祁业敏[1] 孙海洋 ZHANG Xiaotong;ZHENG Yan;ZHANG Yi;LAN Yanfang;WU Binglun;QI Yemin;SUN Haiyang(Cangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Cangzhou,Hebei 061001,China)

机构地区：[1]沧州市疾病预防控制中心,河北沧州061001

出　　处：《中国国境卫生检疫杂志》2025年第1期51-55,共5页Chinese Journal of Frontier Health and Quarantine

基　　金：沧州市科技计划自筹经费项目(222106101)。

摘　　要：目的研究沧州市布鲁菌病(布病)流行特征及空间聚集性,为有效防控布病提供科学依据。方法收集中国疾病预防控制信息系统中2014—2023年沧州市布病监测数据,采用描述流行病学方法分析沧州市布病的流行特征,用ArcGIS 10.8软件中全局自相关分析和聚类异常值分析数据。结果2014—2023年,沧州市共报告人间布病病例2851例,年平均发病率3.83/10万,2020—2023年发病数及发病率依次为168例及2.25/10万、267例及3.66/10万、311例及4.29/10万、440例及6.02/10万,2020年后发病数及发病率呈持续上升趋势。男性2050例,占71.90%,女性801例,占28.10%;30~69岁占82.12%。农民是主要职业人群,占88.21%;每年春夏季的3-8月为主要流行季节。平均发病率前5位的是沧县、南皮县、肃宁县、献县、青县。全局空间自相关分析显示,2022年沧州市布病发病率存在空间正相关(Z=2.473,P=0.013),具有聚集性趋势,而其他年份不存在空间自相关,呈随机分布。聚类异常值分析显示,布病发病存在“高-高”聚集区,集中在沧州市西部肃宁县、献县、泊头市、河间市等4个地区。结论2014—2020年沧州市布病发病情况处于较高水平,2020年后布病发病呈上升趋势,个别年份存在空间聚集性。应进一步加强布病监测,及时采取防控措施,降低布病发病率。Objective To investigate the epidemiological characteristics and spatial clustering of brucellosis in Cangzhou,and to provide scientific basis for effective prevention and control of the disease.Methods Brucellosis surveillance data of Cangzhou was collected from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention,2014-2023.Descriptive epidemiological method was employed to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of brucellosis,global autocorrelation analysis and Anselin Local Moran's I analysis for spatial outliers were analyzed by using ArcGIS 10.8 software.Results From 2014 to 2023,a total of 2,851 human brucellosis cases were reported in Cangzhou,with an annual average incidence rate of 3.83 per 100,000.The number of cases and incidence rates from 2020 to 2023 were 168 cases(2.25 per 100000),267 cases(3.66 per 100000),311cases(4.29 per 100000)440 cases(6.02 per 100000),respectively,indicated a continuous upward trend in both the number of cases and incidence rate after 2020.Among these cases,2050 were male(71.90%)and 801 were female(28.10%).The cases aged 30-69 accounted for 82.12%.Farmers were the primary occupational affected,accounted for 88.21%.The main epidemic season was March to August,during the spring and summer of each year.The top five counties with the highest average inci-dence rates were Cang county,Nanpi county,Suning county,Xian county,and Qing county.Global spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed the existence of a positive spatial correlation in the incidence of brucellosis in Cangzhou in 2022(Z=2.473,P=0.013),indicated a clustering trend,while no spatial autocorrelation was observed in other years,suggested a random distribution.Anselin Local Moran's I analysis for spatial outliers showed"high-high"clustering areas for brucellosis,concentrated in four regions in the west of Cangzhou,Suning county,Xian county,Botou city,and Hejian city.Conclusion Between 2014 and2020,the incidence of brucellosis in Cangzhou remained at relatively high level,with an upward trend observed after 2

关 键 词：布鲁菌病 流行病学特征 空间自相关 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学] R516.7[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]