排污费上调阻碍了企业出口——基于地理断点回归方法的研究  

The Increase in Discharge Fees Hinders Firm Exports in China:Evidence from Regression Discontinuity Design

作　　者：陈勇兵[1] 李笑萦 张欣欣 CHEN Yongbing;LI Xiaoying;ZHANG Xinxin(Xiamen University)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院,福建省厦门市361005

出　　处：《经济学(季刊)》2025年第1期121-136,共16页China Economic Quarterly

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“中国主动扩大进口问题研究”(19ZDA067)的资助。

摘　　要：本文将2009年部分省市上调二氧化硫排污费作为一个准实验,采用地理断点回归方法研究了环境规制对企业出口的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,在边界区域内,相较于排污费未上调一侧,上调侧的污染部门企业出口遭受了显著损失。其主要传导机制是,污染部门企业通过购买减排设备和减产停产以应对更高的排污费,从而减少排放,最终抑制出口;而上调排污费在短期内尚未激发企业绿色创新。成本收益分析表明,排污费政策在样本期内每减少1%的二氧化硫排放量,我国企业出口减少约5.42亿—6.51亿元。Taking the change of SO2 discharge fees in 2009 as a quasi-experiment,we use the Geo-graphic Regression Discontinuity Design(RDD)method to identify the effect of environmental regulations on firm exports.We find that higher charges significantly reduce the export of polluting firms.Further-more,by purchasing emission reduction equipment and reducing production,polluting firms raised cost and ultimately deceased exports.However,there has been no significant change in the green patent appli-cations.The cost-benefit analysis shows that for every 1%reduction in SO2 emissions,there would be a reduction of about 542-651 million yuan for the export of Chinese enterprises.

关 键 词：排污费政策 企业出口 地理断点回归 

分 类 号：X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]