二维视角下中国经济周期的阶段性划分与波动态势分析  

Phase Classification and Fluctuation Analysis of China's Business Cycle Based on a Two-dimensional Perspective

作　　者：孙晨童 王晓笛[2] 陈磊[3] Sun Chentong;Wang Xiaodi;Chen Lei(School of Finance,Jilin University of Finance and Economics,Changchun 130117,China;School of Economics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;School of Economics,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林财经大学金融学院,130117 [2]中国人民大学经济学院,100872 [3]东北财经大学经济学院,116012

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2025年第1期3-22,共20页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：辽宁省社科基金重点建设学科项目“宏观经济监测预测前沿方法及其应用研究”(编号:L22ZD054)的资助。

摘　　要：准确把握经济与物价的周期性波动规律是提升宏观调控精准度、健全宏观经济治理体系的重要前提。区别于传统的经济周期研究,本文尝试建立一个由经济景气与物价构成的二维景气分析框架,并提出了一种以二维视角划分经济周期阶段的新思路,即根据经济景气与物价的联合波动状态将经济周期划分为“复苏”“繁荣”“滞胀”“衰退”四个不同阶段。在此框架下,通过构建马尔可夫区制转换动态双因子(MS-DBF)模型实现了经济景气指数与物价综合指数的构建、波动状态识别以及联动关系的统一分析。本文研究表明,我国经济周期状态之间的转换存在着非对称特征;自2002年以来,我国经济周期波动共经历了7轮景气循环,并以处于繁荣时期为主。稳健性分析进一步表明,本文构建的模型能够准确地测量两个指数及识别波动性较大或较小的周期阶段,这为在“稳增长”与“稳物价”的双重目标下科学地制定宏观调控政策提供了及时、可靠的参考依据。Accurately grasping the cyclical fluctuations of the economy and prices is an important prerequisite for improving the precision of macroeconomic regulation and building a sound macroeconomic governance system.Distinguished from traditional studies on business cycle,this paper attempts to establish a two-dimensional economic conditions analysis framework consisting of economic and price indices,and proposes a new idea of dividing business cycle phases by a two-dimensional perspective,that is,according to the joint fluctuation state of economic and price indices,business cycle is divided into four phases:"recovery","prosperity","stagflation"and"recession".In this framework,we have achieved a unified analysis of measuring economic and price indices,identifying their volatility states and linkage through constructing a Markov-switching dynamic bivariate factor(MS-DBF)model.The results show that there is an asymmetric feature in the transition between cycle states in China;since 2002,China's bussiness cycle has gone through seven cycles,and mainly in the prosperity period.Further,the robustness analysis shows that the model constructed in this paper is able to accurately measure the two indices and identify cycle phases of high or low volatility,which provides a timely reference for the formulation of macroeconomic control policies under the dual objectives of"stable growth"and"stable prices".

关 键 词：经济景气指数 物价综合指数 二维景气分析 经济周期四分法 

分 类 号：F124.8[经济管理—世界经济]