基于百度指数的中国游客赴日旅游需求时空差异及其影响因素研究  

Research on the Spatiotemporal Differences of Chinese Tourists’Travel Demand to Japan and its Influencing Factors Based on Baidu Index

作　　者：王露 余多丽 孙洁 雷婷 刘蕾[1] 任建荣 Wang Lu;Yu Duoli;Sun Jie;Lei Ting;Liu Lei;Ren Jianrong(School of Tourism Sciences,Beijing International Studies University,Beijing 100024,China;Research Center for Beijing Tourism Development,Beijing 100024,China)

机构地区：[1]北京第二外国语学院旅游科学学院,北京100024 [2]北京旅游发展研究基地,北京100024

出　　处：《旅游论坛》2025年第1期1-16,共16页Tourism Forum

基　　金：北京第二外国语学院“青年学术英才计划项目”(21110010)资助。

摘　　要：近年来,出境旅游流已成为旅游地理研究的热点议题,然而关于其时空格局及影响机制的探讨还相对较少。文章通过构建季节性强度指数并采用空间自相关和地理探测器等分析方法,利用2007—2019年赴日旅游的百度指数信息,并结合31个省(自治区、直辖市)的经济发展和旅游统计数据,分析我国赴日旅游需求的时空差异及其影响因素。研究表明:1)我国赴日旅游需求长期维持在较高水平,7月、8月、12月的赴日旅游需求高于其他月份,但全年并未表现出明显的季节性差异。2)2017年以后,赴日旅游需求呈现显著的空间集聚性特征,局部上看东部多热点区域,西部多冷点区域。3)休假制度、旅游资源季节性和中日双边关系对赴日旅游需求时序变化产生重要影响;国内生产总值、人均国内生产总值、第三产业增加值、入境旅游人数、旅游外汇收入、国内旅游收入和互联网普及率是赴日旅游需求空间分异的核心影响因素。In recent years,outbound tourism flows have become a key topic in tourism geography research.However,discussions regarding their spatiotemporal patterns and underlying mechanism remain relatively limited.China has become one of the most important outbound tourism countries in the world,and Japan has become the second largest destination country of China’s outbound tourism due to close geographical location and trade links.This study constructs a seasonal intensity index and employs methods such as spatial autocorrelation and geographical detectors to analyze Baidu Index data on Chinese tourism to Japan from 2007 to 2019.Combining this data with economic development and tourism statistics from 31 provin-cial-level administrative regions(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan),the study examines the spatiotemporal differences in China’s tourism demand to Japan and its influencing factors.The findings in-dicate that:(1)China’s outbound tourism demand to Japan has remained at a high level over a long time,with higher demand in July,August,and December compared to other months,but there is no obvious seasonal difference throughout the year.(2)Since 2017,the demand for outbound tourism to Japan has shown significant spatial clustering,with multiple hotspot areas in eastern regions and cold spots in west-ern regions.(3)Factors such as the vacation system,seasonal changes of tourism resources,and China-Japan relationship has an important impact on the temporal changes;Economic factors such as GDP,GDP per capita,value added of the tertiary industry,number of inbound tourists,foreign exchange income of tourism,domestic tourism income and the internet penetration rate are the core influencing factors of spa-tial differentiation.This study enriches the theoretical research of outbound tourism demand from the per-spective of geographical space,optimizes the research framework of outbound tourism,and provides re-search ideas for exploring outbound tourism market with other countries.Meanwhile,it can also provide certain re

关 键 词：出境旅游 旅游需求 时空差异 日本 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]