黄河流域典型绿洲城市扩张模拟及其生态韧性响应研究  

Simulation of urban expansion and its response to ecological resilience of typical oases in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：刘园园 马彩虹 马丽娅 LIU Yuanyuan;MA Caihong;MA Liya(School of Geography Science and Planning,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021,Ningxia,China)

机构地区：[1]宁夏大学地理科学与规划学院,宁夏银川750021

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2025年第3期506-516,共11页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目子课题(2023YFF1304705);宁夏高等学校自然科学项目(NYG2024007)资助。

摘　　要：建立良好的生态网络是提升城市生态韧性的重要途径。以黄河流域典型绿洲城市——银川市中心城区为例,基于PLUS模型模拟分析不透水面扩张下城市生态网络变化及其韧性响应特征。结果表明:(1)银川市中心城区不透水面发生快速扩张。2020年不透水面面积扩张为2000年的2.61倍,2030年不透水面面积将是2000年的3.24倍;不透水面空间格局由东西纵向“一”字形格局发展为向右倾倒的“T”字形格局,2030年这种横卧“T”字形格局得到进一步加强。(2)伴随着不透水面的扩张,银川市中心城区生态网络格局发生明显变化。2000年围绕中心城区边缘地带形成的单环状生态网络,2020年外环向西扩张,内环整体向北移动,在东北片区形成较为复杂的回路。模拟发现,2030年银川市中心城区生态网络将形成“川”字形结构。(3)生态网络结构韧性与功能韧性均有所提升。2000—2020年α、β、γ指数分别提升0.09、0.17、0.06,网络传播性和多样性分别提升0.08、0.29。到2030年,生态网络结构韧性和功能韧性将进一步提升,但整体水平仍然偏低。Establishing a robust ecological network is essential for enhancing urban ecological resilience.Using the central urban area of Yinchuan City,a representative oasis city in the Yellow River Basin of China,as a case study,changes in the urban ecological network and its resilience responses to impervious surface expansion were simulated and analyzed using the PLUS model.The results indicate the following:(1)Rapid expansion of impervious surfaces has occurred in central Yinchuan City.The impervious surface area in 2020 expanded to be 2.61 times larger than that in 2000,and by 2030,the area is projected to be 3.24 times larger than in 2000.The spatial pattern of impervious surfaces evolved from an east-west longitudinal“一”pattern to a rightward-tilting“T”pattern,with further strengthening of this horizontal“T”pattern by 2030.(2)With the expansion of impervious surfaces,the ecological network pattern in the central urban area has undergone substantial changes.In 2000,a single-ring ecological network was observed around the urban fringe.By 2020,the outer ring expanded westward,and the inner ring shifted northward,forming a more intricate circuit in the northeastern sector.Simulations predict that by 2030,the ecological network will exhibit a“川”structure.(3)Both structural and functional resilience of the ecological network have improved.Between 2000 and 2020,theα,β,andγindices increased by 0.09,0.17,and 0.06,respectively,while network dissemination and diversity rose by 0.08 and 0.29,respectively.By 2030,further enhancements in structural and functional resilience are expected,though the overall resilience level will remain low.

关 键 词：绿洲城市 生态网络 韧性 PLUS模型 黄河流域 

分 类 号：TU984.115[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]