基于决策树的油气勘探项目经济评价方法研究  

Research on the Economic Evaluation Method of Overseas Oil and Gas Exploration Projects Based on Decision Trees

作　　者：王宇纯 李伟 WANG Yuchun;LI Wei(CNOOC Limited,Beijing 100010,China;CNOOC Energy Economics Institute,Beijing 100013,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋石油有限公司,北京100010 [2]中国海油集团能源经济研究院,北京100013

出　　处：《化工管理》2025年第6期15-17,33,共4页Chemical Management

摘　　要：海上油气田在勘探阶段具有不确定性因素多、前期资金投入量大等多重风险因素。文章首先介绍了勘探项目经济评价的基本原则和经济评价方法;其次,对最小商业可采规模、决策树模型等关键环节的应用做了详细介绍;最后,以A项目为例,借助评价软件将决策树方法应用于该项目经济评价中,得出基于多重风险分析的评价结果,与未考虑最小商业可采规模的评价结果对比,总结其应用价值与优势。In the exploration stage of offshore oil and gas fields,there are multiple risk factors such as uncertainty and large initial capital investment.This paper first introduces the basic principles and methods of economic evaluation for exploration projects.Secondly,a detailed introduction was made on the application of key aspects such as minimum commercial feasible scale and decision tree model.Finally,taking project A as an example,the decision tree method was applied to the economic evaluation of the project using evaluation software,and the evaluation results based on multiple risk analysis were obtained.Compared with the evaluation results without considering the minimum commercially viable scale,the application value and advantages were summarized.

关 键 词：海外勘探项目 最小商业可采规模 蒙特卡洛模拟 决策树法 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济]