数字服务税的经济和福利影响——基于GTAP模型的分析  

Economic and Welfare Impact of Digital Service Tax:An Analysis Based on GTAP Model

作　　者：李建军[1] 高原 Li Jian-jun;Gao Yuan(Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学财政税务学院,四川成都611130

出　　处：《当代财经》2025年第1期42-55,共14页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“数字经济时代我国税收制度适配性研究”(23&ZD064)。

摘　　要：数字服务税作为应对数字经济税收挑战的重要举措,近年来备受各界关注。基于此,利用全球贸易分析(GTAP)模型和GTAP 11数据库,评估不同的征税方案下数字服务税对各国和地区的经济和福利影响的研究结果发现,数字服务税对各国和地区的经济影响存在显著的差异,税率越高、征税范围越大,其对经济和社会福利的负面影响越大;数字服务税对中国的影响相对较小,当设置较低的税率时,数字服务税能够促进经济发展、改善社会福利;全球统一税率的征税方案能够促进大多数国家和地区的经济发展,并改善其贸易条件和社会福利,但不同的税率设置和征税范围对各国和地区的影响不同;在不同的征税方案中,征税对各国和地区数字部门产出的影响具有异质性;长期来看,在动态设置下,数字服务税对经济的负面影响会逐渐缩小,而对社会福利的负面影响会逐渐扩大。当前,中国应结合实际情况,研究制定具有针对性和灵活性的数字服务税政策;积极参与国际税收规则的制定,争取数字服务税的话语权;发展数字经济是一个长期趋势,政府应加大对数字经济创新和发展的支持力度。Digital Service Tax(DST),as an important initiative to address the taxation challenges of the digital economy,has received a lot of attention in recent years.Therefore,this paper utilizes the Global Trade Analysis(GTAP)model and the GTAP 1l database to assess the economic and welfare impacts of the digital services tax on various countries and regions under different tax schemes.The findings show that there are significant differences in the economic impacts of digital services tax on various countries and regions,the higher the tax rate and the wider the scope of the tax,the greater the negative impacts on the economy and social welfare.The levy of digital services tax has a relatively small impact on China;when a lower rate is set,it can promote economic development and improve social welfare.The levy scheme of a global flat rate can promote the economic development of most countries and regions,and improve their terms of trade and social welfare,but different tax rate settings and taxing scope have different impacts on these countries and regions.The impact of taxation on the output of the digital sector in different countries and regions varies among different taxation schemes.In the long run,under dynamic settings,the negative impact of digital service tax on the economy will gradually shrink,while the negative impact on social welfare will gradually expand.Currently,China should develop targeted and flexible digital service tax policies based on its actual situation,actively participate in the formulation of international tax rules and strive for the discourse power of digital service tax.Developing the digital economy is a long-term trend,the government should increase its support for innovation and development in the digital economy.

关 键 词：数字经济 数字服务税 征税方案 社会福利 GTAP模型 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学]