危地小行星撞击风险预报系统——短临预报场景(SHARP-IIS)设计与应用  

Design and Application of Prediction and Analysis System for Imminent Impacts

作　　者：耿淑娟 赵洁凝 王楷铎 李明涛 GENG Shujuan;ZHAO Jiening;WANG Kaiduo;LI Mingtao(National Space Science Center,CAS,Beijing 100190,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院国家空间科学中心,北京100190 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100190

出　　处：《空间科学与试验学报》2024年第4期20-35,共16页Journal of Space Science and Experiment

基　　金：科工局空间碎片与近地小行星防御科研专项-近地小行星时空协同监测与目标特性反演技术研究项目(KJSP202320105)。

摘　　要：近地小行星撞击是全人类共同面临的重大潜在威胁。通过监测预警发现撞击概率大的近地小行星,对其开展陨落预报,是防御小行星撞击灾害的重要前提。基于近地小行星短临预报任务场景的核心需求,中国科学院国家空间科学中心自主设计并开发了危地小行星撞击风险预报系统(简称“锐警”),其中的短临预报场景能够对进入地球一定范围内、存在撞击概率的近地小行星开展基于真实观测数据的轨道确定、轨道递推、陨落预报的全流程分析,为小行星撞击灾害防御提供参考。本文介绍了SHARP-IIS系统各功能模块的基本原理,并借助小行星2024 RW1、小行星2024 UQ两次撞击事件展示本系统在不同观测弧长下的表现。SHARP-IIS系统在观测弧段为7 h的2024 RW1场景中实现了较好的预测精度,与近地天体研究中心(CNEOS)记录的空爆信息相比,SHARP-IIS计算的空爆位置误差小于20 km,空爆时刻最小误差约1 s。Near-Earth asteroid impacts represent a significant potential threat faced by all of humanity.Monitoring and providing early warnings to identify near-Earth asteroids with a high impact probability,as well as conducting impact predictions,are essential prerequisites for planetary defense.According to the core requirements of short-term impact forecasting for near-Earth asteroid,National Space Science Center,CAS independently designed and developed the System for Hazardous Asteroids Risk Prediction(SHARP).The Imminent Impactor Scenario of SHARP(SHARP-IIS)performs orbit determination,orbit propagation,and impact prediction for near-Earth asteroids that reach a certain proximity to Earth based on observational data to provide critical references for planetary defense.This paper introduces the basic principles of each functional module of the SHARP-IIS system and demonstrates its performance through the impact events of asteroid 2024 RW1 and asteroid 2024 UQ with different observation arc lengths.In the scenario of asteroid 2024 RW1 with an observation arc of seven hours,the SHARP-IIS system achieved a relatively high-level prediction accuracy.Compared with the airburst data recorded by the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies(CNEOS),the calculated airburst location error by SHARP-IIS was less than 20 km,and the minimum airburst timing error was around 1 s.

关 键 词：近地小行星 短临预报 陨落预报 轨道确定 

分 类 号：P185.7[天文地球—天文学]