基于信息熵-DEMATEL-云模型的加氢装置风险评价方法  

Risk Assessment Method for Integrated Information Entropy-DEMATEL-Cloud Model

作　　者：党鹏飞 孙龙飞 张晓婕 夏可茹 金志浩[1] 龚斌[1] DANG Pengfei;SUN Longfei;ZHANG Xiaojie;XIA Keru;JIN Zhihao;GONG Bin(School of Mechanical and Power Engineering,Shenyang University of Chemical Technology,Shenyang 110142,China)

机构地区：[1]沈阳化工大学机械与动力工程学院,沈阳110142

出　　处：《机械工程师》2025年第3期32-35,共4页Mechanical Engineer

基　　金：辽宁省市场监督管理局科技计划项目(2022ZC042);辽宁省科技厅自然科学基金计划项目(2022-NLTS-18-02,2022JH 2/101300077)横向项目(2022210101003328)。

摘　　要：石化行业生产工艺复杂、危险指数较高,加氢装置在加工生产方面存在较高的事故风险。针对这一问题,结合信息熵、决策与实验室评估法和云模型,开展对加氢装置燃爆或火灾事故风险的定量评价技术研究。首先,对造成加氢装置发生燃爆或火灾事故的风险因素进行收集和分析,建立事故风险体系;其次,根据信息熵确定风险因素的初始权重,采用决策与实验室评估法计算各因素的“四度”,两者加权计算各因素的综合权重;最后,利用云模型对加氢装置事故风险进行综合评价。研究结果表明,该方法对加氢装置的风险等级判断符合实际情况,为加氢类装置的风险评价提供了依据。The production process of the petrochemical industry is complex and the risk index is high,and the hydrogenation plant has a high risk of accident in processing and production.In view of this problem,combined with information entropy,decision-making and laboratory evaluation method and cloud model,the quantitative evaluation technology research of hydrogenation device explosion or fire accident risk is carried out.Firstly,the risk factors causing explosion or fire accident are collected and analyzed and the accident risk system is established;secondly,the initial weight of risk factors is determined according to the information entropy,and the four degrees of each factor is calculated by decision and laboratory evaluation to calculate the comprehensive weight of each factor;finally,the cloud model is used to comprehensively evaluate the accident risk of the hydrogenation device.The study results show that the risk level judgment of the hydrogenation device is in line with the actual situation,and provides a basis for the risk assessment of the hydrogenation device.

关 键 词：风险评价 加氢装置 信息熵 决策与实验室评估法 云模型 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TE687[石油与天然气工程—油气加工工程]