房产税改革对婚姻形成的影响  

The Impact of Property Tax Reform on Marriage Formation

作　　者：张阳阳 林裕欣 Zhang Yangyang;Lin Yuxin(School of Economics,Jinan University)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院

出　　处：《劳动经济研究》2025年第1期27-49,共23页Studies in Labor Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(批准号:72403100);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(批准号:23YJC790193);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(批准号:23JNQN23)的支持。

摘　　要：住房是影响婚姻形成的重要因素之一。本文基于2010-2020年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,使用双重差分法实证评估房产税改革对婚姻形成的影响。研究发现,房产税改革显著提高了结婚率,男性和女性结婚率分别提升了3.7个和4.5个百分点,且这一促进效应在改革后的近十年内具有持续性。机制分析显示,房产税改革通过促进首套住宅拥有、推动婚房购置、提高住房财富,提升了男性在婚姻市场中的竞争力,促进婚姻的形成。异质性分析表明,房产税改革主要促进了受教育程度较高、拥有城镇户口及拥有小户型住房的人群的婚姻形成,这一发现为制定更加精准有效的婚姻激励措施提供了实证依据。本文的研究结论为房产税改革评估提供了新证据,并丰富了婚姻形成的影响因素研究。Housing is a key factor affecting the formation of marriage.Based on the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)data from 2010 to 2020,this paper uses the difference-in-differences method to empirically evaluate the impact of real estate tax reform on marriage formation.The study finds that real estate tax reform significantly increased the marriage rate,with the marriage rate for men and women increasing by 3.7 and 4.5 percentage points,respectively,and this promoting effect persisted for nearly a decade after the reform.The analysis reveals that the reform boosted men's competitiveness in the marriage market by encouraging first-time home ownership,facilitating purchase of newlywed housing,and increasing housing wealth.The analysis indicates that the reform mainly encouraged marriage among individuals with better education,urban residency,and those living in smaller homes.These findings offer empirical support for developing more targeted and effective marriage incentives.This study's conclusions provide new insights into real estate tax reform evaluation and enhance the understanding of factors influencing marriage formation.

关 键 词：房产税改革 结婚率 房屋购置 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] F812.42[政治法律—政治学] D669.1[政治法律—中外政治制度]