粮食安全韧性评价:体系构建、发展差异及障碍度分析  

Evaluation on Food Security Resilience:System Construction,Development Disparities,and Obstacle Analysis

作　　者：郭耀辉[1] 谢蕾 杜兴端[1] GUO Yaohui;XIE Lei;DU Xingduan

机构地区：[1]四川省农业科学院农业信息与农村经济研究所,四川成都610066

出　　处：《农村经济》2025年第1期29-37,共9页Rural Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“粮食安全目标下构建耕地种植用途管控长效机制研究”(编号:23XJY006);四川省农业科学院1+9科技攻关项目“天府农科发展战略研究基础理论与支撑技术”(编号:1+9KJGG009);四川省农业科学院省财政自主创新专项“科技支撑四川农业高质量发展研究”(编号:2022ZZCX037)的研究成果。

摘　　要：粮食安全韧性反映粮食产业链对风险和冲击的抵抗能力、恢复能力和变革能力,是新时期粮食安全观的重要体现。从产业链韧性视角构建粮食安全评价体系,考察测算各省(区、市)粮食安全系统韧性水平和粮食产销区区域差异及障碍度。研究发现:我国粮食安全韧性总体呈波动上升趋势,有7个省份达到高韧性水平;粮食安全韧性的功能区间差异及省域差异均在扩大,应以省域为基本单元制定相应的政策;抵抗能力和变革能力不足是制约粮食安全韧性的主要障碍,具体体现在人多地少矛盾、农村空心化及农业基础设施薄弱等方面。未来应针对不同区域和省际采取差异化的策略,结合各省实际粮食贡献研究制定粮食产销区省际横向利益补偿机制,区域政策应更关注粮食产销平衡区;不同功能区应围绕自身面临的主要障碍补齐短板;稳粮价、提单产和绿色发展仍是未来政策关注的着力点。The resilience of food security reflects the resistance,recovery,and transformation capabilities of the food industry chain against risks and shocks,and is an important manifestation of the food security concept in the new era.This paper constructs a food security evaluation system from the perspective of industrial chain resilience,and examines and calculates the resilience level of the food security system in each province(region,municipality),regional differences in food production and marketing areas,and the degree of obstacles.The study finds that China's food security resilience is generally fluctuating upward trend,and seven provinces have reached the high resilience level;the functional interval differences and provincial differences in food security resilience are expanding,and corresponding policies should be formulated based on the provincial unit;Insufficient resistance and transformation capabilities are the main obstacles restricting food security resilience,specifically manifested in aspects such as the contradiction between a large population and limited land,rural hollowing,and weak agricultural infrastructure.In the future,differentiated strategies should be adopted for different regions and inter-provinces,and inter-provincial horizontal benefit compensation mechanisms for food production and marketing zones should be formulated by combining the actual food contribution of each province,and regional policies should pay more attention to food production and marketing balance zones.Different functional areas should make up for their shortcomings around the main obstacles they face;stabilizing food prices,improving yields per unit and green development will continue to be the focus of future policies.

关 键 词：粮食功能区 粮食安全韧性 泰尔指数 产销区差异 障碍度 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]