人口老龄化、土地规模与农业社会化服务——基于5省18县的抽样调查  

Population Aging,Land Scale,and Agricultural Social Services:A Sample Survey Based on Eighteen Counties in Five Provinces

作　　者：钟真[1] 张硕 周佐源 ZHONG Zhen;ZHANG Shuo;ZHOU Zuoyuan

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,北京市100044

出　　处：《农村经济》2025年第1期174-183,共10页Rural Economy

基　　金：中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金)项目(编号:23XNO002);国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于所有者与惠顾者同一性程度的中国农民合作社演化机理与政策设计研究”(编号:72073135);国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于社会化服务的农业生产绿色转型机理与支持政策研究”(编号:72473148)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：随着人口老龄化程度加深,未来“谁来种地”的问题是我国推进农业现代化无法回避的重要挑战,而农业社会化服务的兴起为解决这一问题提供了可能。但已有文献多将社会化服务需求的扩大解释为因农业规模化经营不足引起的结果,而少有分析从人口角度剖析劳动力老龄化带来的深刻影响。本文基于5个省18个县481个各类农业经营主体的调查数据,分析了经营者年龄、规模经济和社会化服务需求之间的关系。结果显示,劳动力效率下降和规模经济乏力是社会化服务需求增长的两大主要原因,年龄对社会化服务需求影响有两条途径:一是年龄的直接作用,社会化服务需求与劳动力年龄呈现倒“U”型关系,随着劳动力年龄增加,劳动效率下降,农业经营主体增加社会化服务需求,到达拐点后,劳动力兼业化程度下降,社会化服务需求减少。二是年龄的间接作用,土地规模与劳动力年龄呈线性负相关,田间劳动力老龄化增大土地流转阻力,导致经营主体缺乏规模经济,并促使劳动力替代弥补损失效率,增加社会化服务需求。With the aging of the population,the pressing question of"who will farm"becomes a critical challenge that cannot be ignored in China's pursuit of agricultural modernization.The emergence of agricultural socialized services offers a potential solution to this dilemma.However,much of the existing literature interprets the growing demand for these services primarily as a result of insufficient agricultural scale,with little emphasis on the significant impacts of aging workforce from a demographic standpoint.This article analyzes data from 481 agricultural management entities across 18 counties in five provinces to explore the relationship between operator age,economies of scale,and the demand for socialized services.The findings indicate that declining labor efficiency and weak economies of scale are the two main drivers behind the increased demand for socialized services.Age influences this demand through two main pathways:first,the direct effect of age,the demand for socialized services and the age of the workforce show an inverted"U"relationship.As the age of the labor force increases,the labor efficiency decreases and the demand for socialized services by agricultural business entities increases,and after reaching the inflection point,the degree of parttime labor decreases and the demand for socialized services decreases.Secondly,the indirect effect of age,land size and labor force age is linear negative correlation,field labor aging increase land transfer resistance,resulting in the lack of economies of scale of the main body of the operation,and prompted the labor force replacement to compensate for the loss of efficiency,increase the demand forsocialized services.

关 键 词：老龄化 土地规模 农业社会化服务 农业现代化 

分 类 号：F325.1[经济管理—产业经济]