城市产业结构升级与人口规模的关系及演变规律  

The relationship between industrial structure upgrading and population size of cities and its evolution pattern

作　　者：张耀军[1,2] 陈芸[1] 巫锡炜[3] ZHANG Yaojun;CHEN Yun;WU Xiwei(School of Applied Economic,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Institute of Coordinated Development,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学应用经济学院,北京100872 [2]中国人民大学京津冀协同发展研究院,北京100872 [3]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心,北京100872

出　　处：《地理学报》2025年第2期345-359,共15页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金项目(12XNI002)。

摘　　要：大城市在产业转型升级中起着重要的引领作用。本文以2006—2019年中国284个地级及以上城市的市辖区为研究样本,从城市标度律的视角探索城市产业转型与人口规模的基本关系及演变规律。研究发现:(1)中国城市产业发展受产业整体发展趋势和城市人口规模变化的影响,产业标度因子与产业区位商间的对应关系得到验证:大城市(人口规模排序前5%)的特征产业有房地产业、租赁和商务服务业、科学研究和技术服务业等,其标度因子为超线性;小城市(人口规模排序末75%)的特征产业有农、林、牧、渔业、采矿业等产业,其标度因子为次线性;人口规模排序为5%~25%的城市产业结构介于前两类城市的过渡阶段。(2)以中国证据验证了城市产业演进规律,平均产业重演指数为0.49,平均城市重演指数为0.37。城市产业结构随城市人口规模“梯度转移”,大城市带动产业升级,并对小城市形成辐射带动效应。研究结论对城市规划和产业布局具有政策启示。Large cites play a leading role in the industrial transformation and upgrading.Based on data on municipal districts for 284 cities at the prefecture level and above in China from 2006 to 2020,this paper investigates the relationship between urban industrial transformation and population size of cities and its evolution pattern,under the perspective of urban scaling laws.There are two main findings in this study.Firstly,the development of urban industries in China is influenced by both the overall development of industries and the change in urban population size,and the correspondence between scaling exponent and location quotient for industries is confirmed:specifically,large cities,which are ranked in the top 5%in terms of population size,are characterized by industries with a superlinear scaling factor of employment population,such as real estate,rental and business services,and scientific research and technical services;small cities,which are ranked in the bottom 75%of population size,are typified by industries with a sublinear scaling factor of employment population,like agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,fishery,and mining;and cities ranked from 5%to 25%of population size are observed to have an industrial structure which is in a transitional phase between the first two types of cities.Secondly,the evolution pattern of urban industries is verified by Chinese evidence,with average recapitulation index of 0.49 and 0.38 respectively for industries and cities.It is thus evident that the industrial structure in cities shifts gradiently with their population size,that is,industrial upgrading in large cities comes first,and then it will exert a radiating effect on the industrial transformation in small cities.

关 键 词：城市标度律 产业结构转型 城市人口规模 中国 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济] C924.2[社会学—人口学]