基于ISM模型的地铁水灾事故致因分析  

Analysis of causes of subway flood accidents based on Interpretive Structural Modeling

作　　者：张鹏 陈珊[2] 林晓飞[3,4] 汤文欣 夏伦萍 裴杨运 ZHANG Peng;CHEN Shan;LIN Xiaofei;TANG Wenxin;XIA Lunping;PEI Yangyun(Sinosteel Ma'anshan General Institute of Mining Research Co.,Ltd.,Ma'anshan Anhui 243000,China;Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430070,China;Anhui University of Technology,Ma'anshan Anhui 243032,China;Post-doctoral Scientific Research Workstation of Ma'anshan University,Ma'anshan Anhui 243032,China)

机构地区：[1]中钢集团马鞍山矿山研究总院股份有限公司,安徽马鞍山243000 [2]武汉理工大学,湖北武汉430070 [3]安徽工业大学,安徽马鞍山243032 [4]马鞍山学院博士后科研工作站,安徽马鞍山243100

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2025年第3期37-41,47,共6页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

基　　金：安徽省博士后研究人员科研活动经费资助项目(2022B633);安徽省住房城乡建设科学技术计划项目(2022YF005);安徽省高校自然科学研究项目(2023AH051123);安徽省大学生创新创业训练计划项目(S202310360227);安徽省高校优秀科研创新团队项目(2023AH010017);安徽工业大学芜湖技术创新研究院应用基础研究项目(2022jc04)。

摘　　要：为分析地铁水灾事故致因,有效预防灾害事故发生,基于国内外地铁车站水灾案例统计分析,从人员、设备设施、环境、管理因素4个角度,应用模糊德尔菲法和三角模糊数法筛选出15个致灾因素;采用解释结构模型分析各致灾因素间的逻辑关系及各层级关系。结果表明:降雨量等级是地铁水灾事故的最根本影响因素,是最底层因素;第2—5层是挡水设施设备、应急演练质量、应急预案完善程度、部门应急协调能力、应急培训效果、车站出入口排水能力、通信设备、市政管网排水能力、地铁车站出入口属性、降雨监测预警设备和城市不透水面积;现场应急处置能力、站内排水设施设备和防汛防洪物资设备,是地铁水灾事故的最直接影响因素,是顶层因素。To analyze the causes of subway water disaster accidents and effectively prevent such incidents,a statis-tical analysis of domestic and international subway station water disaster cases is conducted.From four perspectives—personnel,equipment and facilities,environment,and management factors,15 disaster-causing factors are identi-fied using the fuzzy Delphi method and triangular fuzzy number method.The interpretive structural modeling(ISM)is then used to analyze the logical relationships and hierarchical structures among these factors.The results show that rainfall levels are the most fundamental influencing factor for subway water disaster accidents,acting as the bottom-level factor.The second to fifth levels include factors such as flood control facilities and equipment,the quality of emergency drills,the completeness of emergency plans,inter-departmental emergency coordination capabilities,emergency training effectiveness,drainage capacity at station entrances and exits,communication equipment,munici-pal drainage network capacity,station entrance and exit attributes,rainfall monitoring and early warning equipment,and urban impermeable areas.The most direct influencing factors,placed at the top-level,are on-site emergency re-sponse capabilities,in-station drainage facilities and equipment,and flood prevention materials and equipment.

关 键 词：地下轨道交通 水灾 致灾因素 解释结构模型(ISM) 

分 类 号：U231.96[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]