基于改进DS-CBR的社区燃气管道抢修资源预测  

Community gas pipeline emergency repair resource prediction based on improved DS-CBR

作　　者：杨三锋 胡瑾秋[1,2] 董绍华 刘慧[3] YANG Sanfeng;HU Jinqiu;DONG Shaohua;LIU Hui(College of Safety and Ocean Engineering,China University of Petroleum(Beijing),Beijing 102249,China;Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Safety and Emergency Technology,Ministry of Emergency Management,Beijing 102249,China;Beijing Gas Group Research Institute,Beijing 100011,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)安全与海洋工程学院,北京102249 [2]油气生产安全与应急技术应急管理部重点实验室,北京102249 [3]北京市燃气集团研究院,北京100011

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2025年第3期48-54,共7页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

摘　　要：针对社区燃气管道泄漏后应急抢修设备可能出现缺乏或冗余的问题,提出基于改进DS-CBR的抢修设备预测模型。首先通过DEA效率评价模型,找出资源配置方案的不足,后将模糊集理论与DS证据理论结合,代入CBR中的特征属性权重打分中,将带有主观性的专家评价值进行融合,减少案例推理过程中指标权重受专家打分的主观影响,完成对资源配置方案的预测。结果表明,结合DEA、改进DS与CBR结合的资源预测模型,能很好地完成燃气管道泄漏后抢修设备预测。在案例分析中可看出,老社区燃气管道泄漏后抢修在资源配置方面需以钢质管道抢修设备为主,而新社区应以PE管道抢修设备为主。To address the potential issue of lacking or redundant emergency repair equipment after gas pipeline leakage in communities,in this article,a repair equipment prediction model based on the improved DS-CBR method is proposed.First,the DEA efficiency evaluation model is used to identify deficiencies in resource allocation plans.Then,fuzzy set theory and DS evidence theory are integrated into the feature attribute weight scoring in CBR,allowing for the fusion of subjective expert evaluations and reducing the influence of expert scoring on indicator weights during the case reasoning process.This approach completes the prediction of resource allocation plans.The results show that the resource prediction model combining DEA,improved DS,and CBR can effectively predict the required repair equipment after a gas pipeline leakage.The case analysis indicates that for older communities,the repair equipment should primarily focus on steel pipeline repair equipment,whereas for new communities,PE pipeline repair equipment should be prioritized.

关 键 词：社区燃气管道 应急资源 DEA效率评价 案例推理 

分 类 号：TU996.8[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程]