基于G1-DEMATEL-UMT模型的城市灾害应急能力成熟度评估  

Assessment of urban disaster emergency response capability maturity based on G1-DEMATEL-UMT Model

作　　者：秦华礼[1] 马晓燕 QIN Huali;MA Xiaoyan(School of Resources and Civil Engineering,Northeastern University,Shenyang Liaoning 110819,China)

机构地区：[1]东北大学资源与土木工程学院,辽宁沈阳110819

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2025年第3期62-69,共8页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

摘　　要：为了提高城市灾害的应急能力,提出一种应急能力成熟度评估的方法。首先,从应急管理全过程均衡角度出发,构建了包含7个一级指标和30个二级指标的评估指标体系;然后,建立G1-DEMATELUMT模型评估城市灾害应急能力成熟度,运用未确知测度理论(UMT)并结合G1-DEMATEL得出的综合权重来计算城市灾害的应急能力成熟度等级;最后,将该模型运用到辽宁省新民市灾害应急能力成熟度评估中,得到该城市灾害应急能力水平。结果表明,该城市灾害应急能力成熟度属于规范级,与该城市实际灾害应急水平相符,此评估方法也可以促使政府部门重视该市的灾害应急能力建设,加强预防和准备工作,提高应对突发事件的能力。To enhance the emergency response capacity for urban disasters,a method for assessing emergency capa-bility maturity is proposed.First,an evaluation index system is constructed,consisting of 7 primary indicators and 30 secondary indicators,from the perspective of balancing the entire emergency management process.Then,the G1-DE-MATEL-UMT model is established to assess the maturity of urban disaster emergency capabilities.The Uncertainty Measurement Theory(UMT)is used,combined with the comprehensive weights derived from G1-DEMATEL,to cal-culate the maturity level of urban disaster emergency capabilities.Finally,the model is applied to assess the disaster emergency capability maturity in Xinmin City,Liaoning Province,to determine the city's disaster emergency capabil-ity level.The results show that the city's disaster emergency capability maturity is classified as standard level,which aligns with the actual disaster emergency response level of the city.This evaluation method can also prompt govern-ment departments to focus on disaster emergency capability building,strengthen prevention and preparedness,and im-prove the ability to respond to emergencies.

关 键 词：城市灾害 应急能力 能力成熟度模型(CMM) G1-DEMATEL 未确知测度理论(UMT) 

分 类 号：TU984.116[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]