油气长输管道风险评价技术、标准及软件综述  

Overview of risk assessment techniques,standards,and software for oil and gas pipelines

作　　者：杨玉锋 YANG Yufeng(Pipeline Science and Technology Research Institute,langfang Hebei 065000,China;University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]国家管网集团科学技术研究总院分公司,河北廊坊065000 [2]北京科技大学,北京100083

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2025年第3期92-97,共6页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

基　　金：国家管网集团科技项目(AQWH202302,AQWH202208)。

摘　　要：管道风险评价是管道完整性管理的核心环节之一,是识别、评价和管控管道风险的重要手段,为详细掌握国内外管道风险评价技术进展进而明确下一步发展方向,从风险评价技术、标准和软件应用等开展了详细分析和讨论。分析了半定量风险评价技术模型、标准、软件及应用情况,明确了管道半定量风险评价技术基本发展成熟,下一步重点在加强相关标准协同,构架半定量风险评价技术体系。阐述了定量风险评价技术原理、评价模型及标准情况,明确管道定量风险评价技术基本形成,下一步重点在高钢级管道失效后果模型、失效数据库、风险可接受准则等方面深化研究。提出了管道智能化风险评价研究框架,明确管道智能化风险评价刚刚启动,下一步重点在数据动态采集和基于知识体系的智能化评价模型方面开展研究,实现管道风险机理模型和数据统计模型的深度融合,构建基于数据和知识的智能化管道风险评价。Pipeline risk assessment is one of the core elements of pipeline integrity management and an important tool for identifying,evaluating,and controlling pipeline risks.To gain a detailed understanding of the progress in pipeline risk assessment technologies both domestically and internationally,and to define the next steps for development,a comprehensive analysis and discussion were conducted on risk assessment technologies,standards,and software ap-plications.The study analyzed semi-quantitative risk assessment models,standards,software,and their applications,confirming that semi-quantitative risk assessment technologies have developed to a basic level of maturity.The next focus is on enhancing the coordination of relevant standards and constructing a semi-quantitative risk assessment tech-nology system.The principles,evaluation models,and standards of quantitative risk assessment technologies were di-scussed,and it was determined that quantitative risk assessment technologies have essentially been established.Future efforts should focus on deepening research in areas such as failure consequence models for high-strength steel pipel-ines,failure databases,and acceptable risk criteria.A research framework for intelligent pipeline risk assessment was proposed,indicating that intelligent pipeline risk assessment has just begun.Future research will focus on dynamic data collection and the development of intelligent evaluation models based on knowledge systems,aiming to achieve a deep integration of pipeline risk mechanism models and statistical data models,and to build an intelligent pipeline risk as-sessment system based on data and knowledge.

关 键 词：半定量风险评价 定量风险评价 智能化风险评价 风险评价标准 风险评价软件 

分 类 号：TE88[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程] TP311.5[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论]