全球变暖加速和气候极端化——2024年中国气候研究重大进展速评  

Global warming acceleration and climate extremization:comments on major climate research advances in China 2024

作　　者：王会军[1] 孙建奇[2] 陈活泼[2] 马洁华[2] 段明铿[1] WANG Huijun;SUN Jianqi;CHEN Huopo;MA Jiehua;DUAN Mingkeng(State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management(CPRM),Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气候系统预测与变化应对全国重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [2]中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心,北京100029

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2025年第1期1-7,共7页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目(42088101)。

摘　　要：全球气候正在加速变暖,2023、2024年连续刷新历史高温纪录,2024年较工业革命前升温达1.55℃。“全球沸腾时代”已至,与之伴随的是极端天气事件频发,2000—2019年气象灾害损失较之前20年翻倍。应对气候变化亟须科学突破,国际学术界聚焦气候预测与极端事件等七大挑战。中国气候研究委员会作为中国-国际气候研究交流的桥梁,评选出了2024年十大气候研究进展:东北亚极端增温机制、气溶胶气候效应复杂性、全球降水变率增强、梅雨特征演变、降水系统扁平化、青藏高原水-热-碳耦合、北太平洋海温影响、大西洋-太平洋盐度差异、深时环流与ENSO、AI气候预测系统等。这些成果突显气候研究的前沿领域、跨学科性与社会价值。未来气候领域的研究热点将聚焦全球变暖加速、气候极端化、新北极和青藏高原新时代、气候系统多圈层耦合、气候系统预测与人工智能、气候变化风险与应对等方面,以更好地为防灾减灾、应对气候变化风险、全球气候治理提供科学支撑。The global warming trend has been increasingly significant since the 1980s.It appears that the warming has been accelerating since a decade ago.In 2023 and 2024,the global high temperature record was broken twice.In 2024,the temperature has risen by more than 1.55℃as compared to the pre-industrial period.UN Secretary-General António Guterres proposed that the era of global warming has ended and the era of global boiling has arrived.With the intensification of climate change,the occurrence of extreme weather and climate events is becoming more and more frequent.According to statistics from relevant UN agencies,the economic losses caused by extreme weather and climate from 2000 to 2019 have been doubled compared to the previous 20 years.Effective tackling to the challenges of intensified climate change and extreme events requires revolutionary progress in climate science.Several landmark achievements in climate research have received top awards such as the Nobel Prize.The World Climate Research Programme has listed seven major scientific challenges and established the latest strategic and implementation plans to promote climate research and effectively address the challenges.The China National Climate Research Committee(also the China National Committee for the World Climate Research Programme,CNC-WCRP)was established in 1985.It is one of the earliest established WCRP national committees in the world.CNC-WCRP has vigorously promoted exchanges and cooperation in climate research at home and internationally,and it has become an important bridge connecting international and domestic climate change research.The China Climate Research Committee,through expert recommendations and strict reviews,selected the major progress of climate research in China in 2024.1)Characteristics and causes of interdecadal extreme warming in Northeast Asia transition Zone(Cai et al.,2024),a one-sentence comment:reveals that the substantial warming of the Northeast Asian climate transition zone since the 1980s is not entirely caused by ext

关 键 词：全球变暖加速 气候极端化 新北极和青藏高原新时代 气候预测与AI 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]