中国高温、干旱及其复合事件的研究进展和展望  

Research progress and prospect on the drought,heatwave,and compound drought and heatwave events in China

作　　者：祝亚丽[1,2] 刘洋 孔祥慧[1,2] 王晓欣 张梦琪 洪晓玮 陈活泼[1,2] 孙建奇[1] ZHU Yali;LIU Yang;KONG Xianghui;WANG Xiaoxin;ZHANG Mengqi;HONG Xiaowei;CHEN Huopo;SUN Jianqi(Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;National Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Climate Change Research Center,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心,北京100029 [2]中国科学院大气物理研究所地球系统数值模拟与应用全国重点实验室,北京100029 [3]中国科学院大气物理研究所气候变化研究中心,北京100029

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2025年第1期26-36,共11页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFF0801303);国家自然科学基金项目(41991281);中国科学院大气物理研究所基本科研业务费项目(E3680218)。

摘　　要：干旱是全球最主要、影响最严重的气象灾害之一。随着全球变暖,干旱更易与高温同时发生,干旱与高温的正反馈过程导致极端事件持续更久、强度更强,形成高温干旱复合极端事件,对农业、生态环境等造成更为严重的影响。本文通过对中国高温、干旱及其复合事件研究进展的回顾,总结了中国高温、干旱及其复合事件的变化事实,并对影响中国高温、干旱的关键因子及物理机制进行了梳理;指出了当前研究存在的不足,并提出系统研究海温-陆面-海冰-大气多因子、多过程协同影响中国复合高温干旱事件的必要性;最后,对当前高温干旱的预测现状进行了简要回顾,指出在系统认识复合高温干旱事件发生发展机制的基础上,亟须发展动力-统计相结合的方法,以提升其预测水平。Drought,as one of the leading and most severe meteorological disasters globally,occurs frequently in China.Between 2001 and 2020,approximately 48%of the crop area affected by meteorological disasters in China were due to drought(Li et al.,2021).Heatwaves are believed to be increasing under global warming,while droughts exhibit more regionalized patterns.The simultaneous occurrence of drought and heatwave has become more frequent,mainly due to increase in high temperature events driven by global warming.High temperature and soil moisture deficit can reinforce each other,likely leading to more frequent,longer-lasting,and stronger extreme events,known as compound drought and heatwave events(CDHEs).CDHEs have more severe and persistent impact on agriculture and ecological environment through the positive feedback between drought and high temperature.This work provides a brief review of research progress on drought,heatwave,and CDHE events in China.First,the various definitions of drought,heatwave,and CDHE are summarized.The influencing factors,including sea surface temperature(SST)and sea ice,land surface conditions,atmospheric circulation patterns,and the underlying physical processes,are then reviewed.Northeast China(NEC)is a typical region where drought,heatwave,and CDHE events often occur.Previous studies have identified several factors that influence these events in NEC.As an example,we integrate the effects of sea-land-ice-air system on NEC drought,heatwave,and CDHE events based on prior research,constructing a simplified physical framework.The key mechanisms can be briefly depicted as follows:Local anomalous anticyclone plays a central role in drought,heatwave,and CDHE events.These local circulation anomalies can be induced by Rossby wave train in the upper atmosphere,which are influenced by climate variations in the upstream,including the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO),North Atlantic SST,polar sea ice,and soil temperature in Central Asia.Additionally,phenomena like El N

关 键 词：热浪 干旱 极端事件 复合高温干旱事件 复合事件 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]