PPP模式下城镇老旧小区改造项目的风险分析与评价  

Risk Analysis and Evaluation of Old Residential Renovation under PPP Model

作　　者：蔚筱偲[1] 任鸽 刘亚臣[1] YU Xiaosi;REN Ge;LIU Yachen(School of Management,Shenyang Jianzhu University,Shenyang 110168,China)

机构地区：[1]沈阳建筑大学管理学院,辽宁沈阳110168

出　　处：《建筑经济》2025年第3期81-89,共9页Construction Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“中国跨区域生态环境政企合作治理机制研究”(22AGL036)。

摘　　要：城镇老旧小区改造是提升居民幸福感、改善城镇风貌、实现城市更新的重要工程。PPP模式在解决城镇老旧小区改造过程中财政资金不足,积极撬动金融和社会资本参与等方面还处于探索阶段。本文基于PPP模式下老旧小区改造中各类风险源和要素凝练,运用决策实验室法耦合解释结构模型(DEMATEL-ISM)对各风险因素进行结构分析,确定了PPP模式下老旧小区改造过程中的根源风险和风险因素之间的层级结构,并对风险因素之间的相互关系进行深入分析,为我国全面深入开展PPP模式下的老旧小区改造提供一定的借鉴与参考。The renovation of old residential areas is crucial for enhancing residents'well-being,improving urban appearance,and realizing urban renewal.The PPP(Public-Private Partnership)model is in the exploratory phase regarding addressing the fiscal funding shortfall in the renovation of old residential areas and actively engaging financial and social capital.This paper,drawing from the identification of various risk sources and elements within the PPP model of old residential renovation,employs the Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL)in conjunction with the Interpretive Structural Modeling(ISM)to analyze the structural relationships among diverse risk factors.It identifies the root risk factors within the PPP model for the old residential renovation areas and the hierarchical structure among these factors,and delves into the interrelationships among the factors,offering insights and guidance for the comprehensive and in-depth implementation of PPP models in the transformation of aged urban residential areas in China.

关 键 词：PPP模式 DEMATEL-ISM 老旧小区改造 风险评价 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济] F299.23