多目标协同下农产品主产区县域国土空间格局优化  

Optimization of county-level territorial spatial patterns in major agricultural production areas under multi-objective synergy

作　　者：朱宇婷 丁一[1] 白炜旭 燕思宇 刘光盛[2,3] ZHU Yuting;DING Yi;BAI Weixu;YAN Siyu;LIU Guangsheng(College of Resources and Environment,Shanxi Agricultural University,Jinzhong 030800,China;School of Public Administration,South China Agricultural University,Guangzhou 510640,China;Guangdong Province Key Laboratory of Land Use and Consolidation,Guangzhou 510640,China)

机构地区：[1]山西农业大学资源环境学院,晋中030800 [2]华南农业大学公共管理学院,广州510640 [3]广东省土地利用与整治重点实验室,广州510640

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2025年第2期281-290,共10页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(23CGL064);山西省哲学社会科学规划课题(2023YY077)。

摘　　要：优化农产品主产区县域国土空间格局对于实施主体功能区战略和保障国家粮食安全至关重要。该研究从“规模—结构—布局—策略”4个维度构建优化框架,并以山西省祁县为例,将粮食安全、生态安全、经济发展、碳减排与社会保障作为优化目标,耦合灰色多目标模型与GeoSOS-FLUS模型进行格局优化。并在此基础上进行县域功能分区,并提出相应的发展策略。研究结果表明:1)通过结构优化,到2035年,耕地面积将保持在38 320.60 hm^(2);林地面积将增加至17 172.40 hm^(2);草地面积将减少至21 485.80 hm^(2);水域面积将增加至159.50 hm^(2);建设用地面积将增加至8 214.70 hm^(2)。经济效益比2021年翻1番,碳排放减少15.00%。2)通过GeoSOS-FLUS模型优化布局,林地布局更集中提升碳汇能力,耕地下山提高耕地质量,建设用地集中促进经济流通,格局优化为区域可持续发展奠定了空间基础。3)根据各乡镇的发展潜力,将县域分为农业生产、经济发展和碳汇功能3个区域,并实施差异化的发展策略。该方法不仅可以保障主体功能区战略和双碳目标在县级层面的落实,还可以为其他功能县域的国土空间优化提供参考。This study aims to optimize the land use spatial pattern in the major agricultural production areas at the county level,in order implement the national functional zoning and food security.An optimization framework was constructed for the land use spatial pattern of major agricultural production areas,according to the four aspects of"scale-structure-layout-strategy."Taking Qixian County in Shanxi Province as an example,the optimization targets were defined as the food security,ecological security,economic development,carbon reduction,and social security.The grey multi-objective model was coupled with the GeoSOS-FLUS model.The county was further divided into the functional zones.The development strategies were proposed for each zone.The results were as follows:1)The area of arable land was remained at 38320.60 hm^(2) by 2035 after structural optimization;The area of forest land increased to 17172.40 hm^(2),in order to enhance the carbon sequestration;Grassland decreased to 21485.80 hm^(2) for the optimal land use;The water area increased to 159.50 hm^(2) for the ecological services;The construction land was expanded to 8214.70 hm^(2).The total economic output was predicted to increase by 10976.76 million yuan,compared with 2021.Net carbon emissions were reduced by approximately 86250 t,compared with 2021.Carbon intensity was predicted to decrease by 53.34%,compared with 2021,and by 88.57%compared with 2005.These predictions were achieved in the multiple objectives from the agricultural production,ecological protection,and economic development.2)The GeoSOS-FLUS model was used to simulate the layout of land use.The Kappa index reached 0.87,with an overall accuracy of 0.91,indicating the high precision and reliable optimization.Furthermore,the more concentrated and efficient forest land was significantly improved the carbon sequestration;The quality of arable land was enhanced to further ensure the national food security.More concentrated construction land was also promoted the economic circulation.The optimized layou

关 键 词：国土空间格局优化 农产品主产区 灰色多目标 Geosos-FLUS 

分 类 号：F301.23[经济管理—产业经济]