基于燃煤电厂碳监测数据的碳核算误差分析及修正模型建立  

Carbon accounting error analysis and correction model establishment based on carbon monitoring data of coal-fired power plants

作　　者：朱剑利 白胜利 张桐瑞 康滟婷 卢浩[2] ZHU Jianli;BAI Shengli;ZHANG Tongrui;KANG Yanting;LU Hao(State Grid Xinjiang Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Economic and Technological Research Institute,Urumqi 830047,China;School of Intelligence Science and Technology(School of Future Technology),Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830047,China)

机构地区：[1]国网新疆电力有限公司经济技术研究院,乌鲁木齐830000 [2]新疆大学智能科学与技术学院(未来技术学院),乌鲁木齐830047

出　　处：《矿冶》2025年第1期144-150,共7页Mining And Metallurgy

基　　金：新疆重大科技专项(2023A01005-1);国家自然科学基金资助项目(52266017);国家社科基金资助项目(21&ZD133)。

摘　　要：随着全球气候变化问题日益严重,碳排放控制成为各国政府和能源企业的共同目标。燃煤电厂作为碳排放的主要来源之一,其碳排放量的准确计算和有效管理显得尤为重要。针对燃煤电厂排放因子法计算误差较大的问题,提出了一种基于多项式拟合和误差修正的方法,以提高碳排放量计算的准确性。通过皮尔逊相关系数法选取特征数据集构建多项式模型,利用浣熊优化算法得到最优多项式系数,并对不同特征数和阶数的多项式展开试验。仿真结果显示,建立以发电量、供电量及耗电量的四阶多项式对误差的修正效果最好。误差修正模型能够显著减少碳排放量的计算误差,使修正后的碳排放量更接近实际值。With the increasingly serious problem of global climate change,carbon emission control has become the common goal of governments and energy companies.As one of the main sources of carbon emissions,the accurate calculation and effective management of carbon emissions from coal-fired power plants are particularly important.In order to improve the accuracy of carbon emission calculation,a new method based on polynomial fitting and error correction is proposed.The polynomial model is constructed by using Pearson correlation coefficient method,the optimal polynomial coefficients are obtained by coati optimization algorithm,and the polynomial with different characteristic numbers and orders is tested.The simulation results show that the fourth order polynomial of power generation,power supply and power consumption has the best correction effect.The error correction model can significantly reduce the calculation error of carbon emissions and make the corrected carbon emissions closer to the actual value.

关 键 词：燃煤电厂 碳监测 排放因子 误差修正 多项式模型 

分 类 号：TF05[冶金工程—冶金物理化学] TP183[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]