俄乌冲突对全球原油海洋运输的影响  

Impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on global crude-oil shipping

作　　者：赵鹏军 庞亮[1,3] 康婷婷 吕迪 Zhao Pengjun;Pang Liang;Kang Tingting;Lyu Di(School of Urban Planning and Design,Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School,Shenzhen 518055,Guangdong,China;College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Laboratory for Earth Surface System and Human-Earth Relations,Ministry of Natural Resources of China,Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School,Shenzhen 518055,Guangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学深圳研究生院城市规划与设计学院,广东深圳518055 [2]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871 [3]自然资源部陆表系统与人地关系重点实验室,广东深圳518055

出　　处：《地理科学》2025年第2期254-264,共11页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42130402,41925003)资助。

摘　　要：地缘政治对全球关键资源流动格局的影响是经济地理学的重要议题之一。有诸多对原油进口依赖度高的国家(地区)将原油定为其关键战略资源,在国家(地区)安全战略中给予重点保障。俄乌冲突作为冷战以来欧洲最为严重的地缘政治冲突事件,对全球原油海洋运输格局产生了不可忽视的影响。本文采用2019年、2020年和2022年1—6月的全球AIS船舶轨迹大数据,定量分析了全球原油海洋运输格局在俄乌冲突爆发前后的时空变化特征。结果发现全球原油海洋运输周转量最大降幅达24%;所识别的主要原油海运航线中,俄罗斯至欧洲航线流量减少,俄罗斯至印度航线以及中东、美国至欧洲航线流量增长;全球原油海洋运输格局出现重构趋势,呈现出由西欧与美国主导的“环大西洋航线”以及由俄罗斯主导的“亚洲航线”。该格局将会对石油进口依赖度较高国家(地区)的能源安全、能源产业及关联产业等产生重要影响。本研究结果有助于丰富地缘政治与全球资源流动格局之间关系的研究,深化地缘政治对全球资源流动格局影响机制的理论理解。The impact of geopolitics on patterns of global flows of critical resources is an important issue for the economic geography.Many countries with high dependence on crude oil import regard crude oil as their key strategic resource,and give priority guarantee in national security strategy.As the most serious geopolitical conflict in Europe since the Cold War,the Russia-Ukraine conflict has exerted a significant influence on the global crude oil transportation pattern.This paper quantitatively analyzes the spatio-temporal characteristics of global oil transport pattern before and after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukraine conflict.Based on the global AIS ship track data from January to June 2019,2020 and 2022,this paper presents a method of ship trajectory identification including data pre-processing,trajectory identification and flow calculation.By combining the time,speed,longitude and latitude coordinates and other constraints,the starting and ending points of the route can be determined,and the complete navigation trajectory can be identified.The crude oil transportation volume is calculated by the maximum weight ton of the ship,which includes the transportation volume,the transportation distance and the turnover volume.The results are:1)Before and after the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the global crude oil shipping flow decreased significantly,and the global crude oil turnover fell by 24%in the short term.This negative effect has a one-month lag,which is related to the time of a single crude oil shipment.2)There is spatial heterogeneity in global crude oil shipping flow.The variation of shipping flow occurs only in a few specific regions,and the trend is different.On the demand side,Western Europe increased crude imports from North America and the Middle East,while India and East Asia increased their imports from the Mediterranean.On the supply side,the Middle East have increased their crude exports to western Europe while reducing their crude exports to East Asia;and the Mediterranean region,crude oil exports increa

关 键 词：地缘政治 全球资源流动 俄乌冲突 原油 海洋运输 

分 类 号：K901[历史地理—人文地理学] F550.72[经济管理—产业经济]