广东省经济升级对人口增减变化的影响及作用机制  

Effects and mechanisms of economic upgrading on population change in Guangdong Province

作　　者：杜志威 金利霞[1] 张虹鸥[1] Du Zhiwei;Jin Lixia;Zhang Hongou(Key Lab of Guangdongfor Utilization of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System,Guangdong Open Laboratory of Geospatial Information Technology and Application,Guangzhou Institute of Geography,Guangdong Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou 510070,Guangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省科学院广州地理研究所/广东省地理空间信息技术与应用公共实验室/广东省遥感与地理信息系统应用重点实验室,广东广州510070

出　　处：《地理科学》2025年第2期303-314,共12页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42371220);广州市哲学社会科学规划2023年度课题(2023GZQN54)资助。

摘　　要：从结构升级、功能升级和效率升级3个方面对经济升级进行阐述,以广东省区县单元作为研究对象,分析2000—2020年经济升级与人口增减的时空演化,运用面板回归模型探索经济升级对人口增减的影响及作用机制。研究发现:①经济结构、经济功能和经济效率分别向服务业化、多样化和高效化的方向升级,并呈现显著的时空异质性;②2010年以后全省区县人口缩减的范围和程度加剧,呈现“珠三角增长−粤东西北缩减”以及“城区增长−县市缩减”的空间分化;③经济升级对人口增减变化的作用路径有显著差异:经济结构的服务业化和经济效率的高效化对人口缩减有显著影响,而经济功能的多样化则有助于实现人口增长;④经济升级对人口增减变化的作用效果和显著程度与区县所在地区和所属类型相关。This article categorizes the concept of economic upgrading from three dimensions:structure upgrading,function upgrading and efficiency upgrading.Based on districts and counties of Guangdong Province,China,this paper investigates the spatio-temporal evolution of economic upgrading and population change during 2000—2020,and uses the panel regression model to explore the effects of economic upgrading on population change.The results show that:1)The directions of structure upgrading,function upgrading and efficient upgrading had transferred into tertiarization,diversification,and high-efficiency,respectively,and these directions presented significant heterogeneities in the spatio-temporal perspectives.2)The scope and degree of population shrinkage in Guangdong Province increased after 2010,with more than two fifth districts and counties experienced population loss during the last decade.3)Population growth and shrinkage further differentiated spatially,shown in two spatial patterns—“growth in the central region,shrinkage in peripheral regions”and“growth in districts,shrinkage in counties”.4)The effects of economic upgrading on population change varied according to its dimensions;specifically,the tertiarization negatively impacted on population change,the diversification stimulated population growth,and the high-efficiency led to population shrinkage.5)The effects of economic upgrading on population change also depended on districts and counties’regional locations and administrative types;specifically,the effects of tertiarization and high-efficiency are significant in the Pearl River Delta region and the district-level towns,the effect of diversification is significant in the eastern and the northern regions as well as the county-level towns.

关 键 词：经济升级 人口缩减 收缩城市 多样化 广东省 

分 类 号：K901.3[历史地理—人文地理学]