超临界CO_(2)管道事故泄漏扩散定量风险分析  

Study on quantitative risk analysis of leakage and diffusion in supercritical CO_(2) pipeline accidents

作　　者：姜焕勇 段宇航 邵强 吴凤荣 郭振东 杨娜 JIANG Huanyong;DUAN Yuhang;SHAO Qiang;WU Fengrong;GUO zhendong;YANG Na(Pipe China Engineering Technology Innovation Co.,Ltd.;China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering Co.,Ltd.)

机构地区：[1]国家管网集团工程技术创新有限公司,天津市300457 [2]中国石油天然气管道工程有限公司

出　　处：《管道保护》2025年第1期30-37,共8页

基　　金：国家管网集团科技资助项目“油气管道安全高效建设关键技术研究”(SJSG202209)。

摘　　要：为研究超临界CO_(2)管道发生泄漏后对周边人员造成的影响,通过对超临界CO_(2)的物理特性及职业暴露限值进行分析,结合天然气管道输送风险判定准则,确立了适合于CO_(2)管道定量风险评价的伤害判定准则,并提出了超临界CO_(2)管道定量风险分析方法。以某工程Ⅱ级高后果区一处特定场所为研究对象,根据实际管道设计参数、管道沿线环境、人口及特定场所的分布情况,建立CO_(2)管道事故泄漏扩散模型,开展高后果区管段的社会风险和个人风险分析。结果表明:该高后果区的界区外居民区和其他防护目标的个人风险和社会风险均是可以接受的。研究成果为超临界CO_(2)管道事故泄漏扩散定量风险分析提供参考,该成果能够合理预测建设工程中危险区域,为确定管道和站场的安全距离提供了科学依据。To study the impact of supercritical CO_(2) pipeline leakage on the surrounding personnel,according to the physical characteristics of supercritical CO_(2) and occupational exposure limits,combined with the risk assessment criteria for natural gas pipeline transportation,in this study,a criterion suitable for quantitative risk assessment of CO_(2) pipelines was established and a quantitative risk analysis method for supercritical CO_(2) pipelines was proposed.Taking a specific location in a Class II high-consequence area of a certain project as case study,considering the actual pipeline design parameters,the environment along the pipeline,population distribution,and the distribution of specific locations,a CO_(2) pipeline accident leakage dispersion model was established to conduct social risk and individual risk analysis for the high-consequence area.The results show that the individual risks and social risks of residential areas and other protection targets outside the boundary of the high-consequence area are acceptable.The research results provide a reference for quantitative risk analysis of accidents in supercritical CO_(2) pipelines and enable reasonably predicting hazardous areas in construction projects,providing a scientific basis for determining the safe distances of pipelines and stations.

关 键 词：CO_(2)管道 泄漏扩散 相态变化 高后果区 定量风险分析 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]