各国经济政策不确定性对中国对外贸易的影响研究  

Research on the Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty in Various Countries on China′s Foreign Trade

作　　者：贾荣言[1] 武厚冰 JIA Rongyan;WU Houbing(School of Economics and Management,Hebei University of Science and Technology,Shijiazhuang 050018,China)

机构地区：[1]河北科技大学经济管理学院,河北石家庄050018

出　　处：《河北科技大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第1期15-24,共10页Journal of Hebei University of Science and Technology:Social Sciences

基　　金：石家庄市社科专家培养项目(2023zjpy37)。

摘　　要：随着贸易保护主义风潮的愈演愈烈,全球经济的不确定性逐步上升。为刻画经济政策不确定性对国际贸易的影响,在国际贸易引力模型基础上,从理论层面分析了经济政策不确定性对国际贸易影响的微观机制,并以2010—2022年的国际宏观数据为样本,实证分析了各国经济政策不确定性对中国对外贸易的影响程度及特征。研究结果表明,各国经济政策不确定性会对中国对外贸易发展产生不利影响,且这一结果在进口及出口不同结构回归中依然稳健。此外,经济政策不确定性的变动会通过关税水平、消费物价水平等路径对企业出口和进口产生影响,进而影响两国贸易往来。With the intensification of trade protectionism,the uncertainties of the global economy have gradually increased.In order to portray the impact of economic policy uncertainty on international trade,based on the international trade gravity model,this paper first described the micro-mechanism of the impact of economic policy uncertainty on international trade from a theoretical level,and empirically analyzed the degree and characteristics of the impact of the uncertainty of each country′s economic policy on China′s foreign trade volume using the international macro data from 2010 to 2022 as samples.The research results show that the uncertainty of the economic policies of various countries will adversely affect the development of China′s foreign trade,and this result is still stable in the regression of different structures of imports and exports.In addition,changes in economic policy uncertainty will simultaneously affect the exports and imports of enterprises through differences in tariff levels and consumer price levels,thereby affecting trade between the two countries.

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 国际贸易 引力模型 机制检验 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]