基于SAFETI的成品油管道高后果区定量风险评价  

Quantitative Risk Assessment of High Consequence Area of Refined Oil Pipeline Based on SAFETI

作　　者：史海亮 阳佳旺 张贵元 SHI Hailiang;YANG Jiawang;ZHANG Guiyuan(Technology Innovation Center of National Market Supervision(Safety of Oil and Gas Pipeline and Storage Equipment),China Special Equipment Inspection Institute,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]中国特种设备检测研究院国家市场监管技术创新中心(油气管道与储存设备安全),北京100029

出　　处：《石油工业技术监督》2025年第3期42-47,共6页Technology Supervision in Petroleum Industry

摘　　要：管道高后果区一直是政府和企业关注的重点,针对管道高后果区管理的难题,采用事故风险定量评价软件(SAFETI),对某成品油管道一处高后果区管段模拟发生3种不同孔径的介质泄漏时,在不同天气条件下,泄漏遇到点火源,对发生火灾和爆炸冲击波的情形进行模拟计算,结合输油管道的平均失效概率,定量评估管道发生泄漏事故时的风险区域,依据个人可接受风险标准和社会可接受风险标准制定有针对性的风险管控措施,为管道安全运行及风险管控提供参考依据。结果表明:该高后果区管段的个人风险是不可接受的,社会风险接近社会风险标准上限,虽未达到不可接受但仍需采取措施使风险降低。应用表明,采用定量风险评价方法能科学准确地指导高后果区的管理,获得了比较满意的效果。The high consequence area of the pipeline has always been the focus of the local government and enterprises.In order to solve the problem of pipeline management in high consequence area,the accident risk quantitative assessment software(SAFETI)was used to simulate the leakage of media with three different aperture in a high consequence area of a product pipeline.Under different weather conditions,the leakage encountered ignition source,and the situation of fire and explosion shock wave was simulated.Based on the average failure probability of oil pipelines,the risk areas of pipeline leakage accidents were quantitatively assessed,and targeted risk management and control measures were formulated according to the acceptable risk standards of individuals and society,so as to provide reference for safe operation and risk management and control of pipelines.The results show that the personal risk in the high consequence zone is unacceptable,and the social risk is close to the upper limit of the social risk standard,and although it is not unacceptable,measures need to be taken to reduce the risk.The application results show that the quantitative risk assessment method can guide the management of high consequence area scientifically and accurately,and obtain satisfactory results.

关 键 词：成品油管道 高后果区 定量风险评价 失效概率 失效后果 

分 类 号：TE88[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]