中国新质生产力与现代化产业体系建设耦合协调的时空演变特征及驱动机制  

Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics and Driving Mechanisms of the Coupling Coordination between China's New Quality Productive Forces and the Construction of the Modernized Industrial System

作　　者：谢国根 蒋诗泉[1,2] 高冬冬 Xie Guo-gen;Jiang Shi-quan;Gao Dong-dong(School of Mathematics and Computer Science,Tongling University,Tongling,Anhui,244000;Key Laboratory of Philosophy and Social Science of Anhui Province for intelligent Decision Making in Copper Industry Development,Tongling,Anhui,244000)

机构地区：[1]铜陵学院数学与计算机学院,安徽铜陵244000 [2]铜陵学院铜业发展智能决策安徽省哲学社会科学重点实验室,安徽铜陵244000

出　　处：《吉林工商学院学报》2025年第1期5-14,42,126,共12页Journal of Jilin Business and Technology College

基　　金：2023年度安徽省哲学社会科学规划青年项目“数字技术驱动安徽省新质生产力发展的机制与路径研究”(AHSKQ2023D064)。

摘　　要：在厘清新质生产力与现代化产业体系建设耦合协调机理基础上,利用耦合协调度模型、泰尔指数分解和地理探测器等方法,考察2013—2022年中国新质生产力与现代化产业体系耦合协调水平、时空演变特征及其驱动因素。结果显示:(1)研究期间,中国新质生产力与现代化产业体系建设水平虽然均呈现稳步提升态势,但也存在整体水平不高、省际差异较大等突出问题。(2)新质生产力与现代化产业体系建设耦合协调度整体上经历了“濒临失调→勉强协调”的跨界演变,其中东部地区逐步向中高级协调度转型,而中西部地区协调度则加速脱离失调阶段,且在空间上表现为“东部领先、中西部追赶”的态势。(3)二者耦合协调度地区差异随时间推移在逐步缩小,区域间差异贡献率略低于区域内差异,且区域内差异主要由东部地区贡献。(4)二者耦合协调度演变受公共财政支出水平、经济发展水平、城镇化率等多因素驱动,但不同因素解释力差异明显,各驱动因子交互作用均表现为双因子增强类型。On the basis of clarifying the coupling coordination mechanism between new quality productive forces and the construction of the modernized industrial system,some methods such as the coupling coordination degree model,Theil Index decomposition and geographical detector are used to examine the coupling coordination level,spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and their driving factors from 2013 to 2022.Here are what the results show.(1)During the study period,although the levels of China's new quality productive forces and the construction of the modernized industrial system both improved steadily,there were still some obvious problems such as a low overall level and a large inter-provincial difference.(2)The coupling coordination degree between new quality productive forces and the construction of the modernized industrial system,as a whole,went through a cross-border evolution from borderLine disorder to reluctant coordination.The eastern region gradually transformed towards a medium-high coordination degree while the coordination degree in the central and western regions accelerated its departure from the stage of dislocation and,spatially,it showed a situation of the eastern region leading and the central and western regions catching up.(3)The regional difference in the coupling coordination degree gradually decreased over time.The contribution rate of intra-regional difference got slightly lower than the inter-regional difference which were mainly contributed by the eastern region.(4)The evolution of the coupling coordination degree of the two was driven by multiple factors such as the level of public financial expenditure,the degree of economic development and the urbanization rate.However,the explanatory power of different factors varies significantly and the interaction of each driving factor is manifested as a double-factor enhancement type.

关 键 词：新质生产力 现代化产业体系 耦合协调 时空演变 地理探测器 

分 类 号：F014.1[经济管理—政治经济学] F269.24