中美北极合作:机遇窗口、误解迷思和未来前景  

Sino-US Arctic Cooperation:Opportunity,Misunderstandings and Future Prospects

作　　者：潘敏[1] Henry P.Huntington Pan Min;Henry P.Huntington(School of Political Science and International Relations,Tongji University,Shanghai 100871,China;Arctic Research Center,American Ocean Conservancy)

机构地区：[1]同济大学政治与国际关系学院,上海100871 [2]美国海洋保护协会北极研究中心

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第2期1-8,共8页Journal of Ocean University of China(Social Sciences)

基　　金：同济大学德国研究中心2024年度课题(2024DYZKXN01A)

摘　　要：北极地区的治理离不开世界各国的合作,但目前在中美关系处于低谷、北极安全形势恶化和“双北极”的背景下,北极治理面临着前所未有的挑战。2024年12月,“第七届中美北极社会科学研讨会”的召开传达出一个相对积极的信号。与会专家学者在中美两国已有北极合作的基础上探讨今后在气候变化和环境保护、北极航道的开发与利用、北极经济和教育发展等方面可能的合作以及合作的阻碍因素,并就“特朗普2.0时代”下中美北极合作的未来前景进行深入分析与展望。主要观点有:中美两国在北极治理议题上存在共同利益和合作机遇,但美国高估了中国在北极的作用并误判了中国北极战略的意图,这些误判有些是文化差异造成的,有些是出于故意曲解;有部分学者对特朗普第二任期内中美关系的发展持悲观态度,但认为“北极新例外论”(中美北极合作)的发展有一定的空间;在未来一段时间内,非国家行为体、“二轨外交”和务实合作在推动中美北极关系发展方面将发挥较大的作用。The governance of the Arctic region relies heavily on global cooperation.However,in the context of strained Sino-US relations,escalating security tensions,and the emergence of a"dual Arctic",Arctic governance faces unprecedented challenges.The"Seventh China-US Arctic Social Science Conference",held in December 2024,offers a relatively positive signal amid these tensions.Based on existing Arctic cooperation between China and the United States,experts and scholars at the conference explored potential collaboration in climate change,environmental protection,Arctic shipping route development,economic growth,and education in the Arctic as well as the obstacles in bilateral cooperation.Key viewpoints are as follows:China and the United States share common interests and opportunities for cooperation in Arctic governance,and yet the United States has often overestimated China′s influence and ambitions in the Arctic,misinterpreting China′s strategic intentions.These misjudgments stem from both cultural differences and deliberate misinterpretations.While some scholars remain pessimistic about the impact of a second term of Trump administration on Sino-US relations,they acknowledge the potential for the development of"New Arctic Exceptionalism"(Sino-US Arctic cooperation).In the future,non-state actors,second-track diplomacy,and pragmatic approaches are expected to play a more significant role in advancing Sino-US Arctic relations.

关 键 词：北极新例外论 北极治理 北极航道 气候变化 

分 类 号：D509[政治法律—政治学]