极端天气下的邮轮游客风险感知与保护行为意愿研究  

A Study on the Risk Perception and Protective Behavioral Intention of Cruise Passengers Under Extreme Weather Conditions

作　　者：叶欣梁[1] 汪甜甜 孙瑞红[1] Ye Xinliang;Wang Tiantian;Sun Ruihong(School of Management,Shanghai University of Engineering Science,Shanghai 201600,China)

机构地区：[1]上海工程技术大学管理学院,上海201600

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第2期38-53,共16页Journal of Ocean University of China(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“后疫情时代我国邮轮产业重启与转型升级研究”(21BGL281);国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“双碳战略和疫情背景下邮轮业可持续发展:机制、模式和路径”(22FGLB040)。

摘　　要：极端天气对邮轮旅游构成了航行安全隐患与行程变动风险,威胁游客的生命安全与旅行体验,甚至影响到邮轮旅游行业的形象、声誉及可持续发展。依据风险感知理论、保护动机理论、S-O-R理论,以对367份有效问卷的分析为基础,系统探究了极端天气情境下游客的风险感知特征及其对邮轮旅游保护行为意愿的作用机制。研究结果表明:游客风险感知对其保护行为意愿具有显著正向影响,但对总体态度呈负向影响,尤其是功能服务风险感知在风险感知各维度中对总体态度与保护行为意愿的影响最为显著;总体态度在风险感知对保护行为意愿的影响中起中介作用,并对保护行为意愿产生负向影响;媒体使用在塑造游客认知和行为中发挥重要作用,不仅调节风险感知对保护行为意愿的直接影响,还影响总体态度在两者之间的中介过程,这凸显了数字媒体在风险信息传播中的杠杆效应。研究突破传统单一维度风险分析的局限,构建了包含媒体调节变量的整合行为模型,为邮轮公司建立“风险预警—媒体干预—行为引导”管理体系提供理论依据,对提升极端天气下旅游安全治理效能具有重要实践价值。Extreme weather can pose navigation safety hazards and itinerary change risks to cruise tourism,threatening the lives and travel experiences of passengers,and even affecting the image,reputation and sustainable development of the cruise tourism industry.Based on the risk perception theory,protection motivation theory and S-O-R theory,this study systematically explores the characteristics of passengers′risk perception under extreme weather conditions and the mechanism of their action on cruise tourism protection behavior intention through 367 valid questionnaires.The results of the study show that passengers′risk perception has a significant positive effect on their protective behavioral intention,but has a negative effect on overall attitude,especially the risk perception of functional services has the most significant effect on overall attitude and protective behavioral intention among the dimensions of risk perception.Overall attitude serves as an intermediary in the effect of risk perception on protective behavioral intention and negatively influences protective behavioral intention.The results also show that media use plays an important role in shaping passengers′perceptions and behaviors,not only moderating the direct effect of risk perception on protective behavior intentions,but also influencing the mediating process of overall attitudes between the two,which highlights the leverage effect of digital media in risk information dissemination.This study breaks through the limitations of traditional one-dimensional risk analysis and constructs an integrated behavioral model including media regulation variables,which provides a theoretical basis for cruise companies to establish a"risk warning-media intervention-behavioral guidance"management system,and is of great practical value for improving the effectiveness of tourism safety governance in extreme weather.

关 键 词：极端天气 邮轮旅游 风险感知 总体态度 保护行为意愿 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]