基于MaxEnt模型的蜜柑大实蝇在我国的适生区预测  

Prediction of Suitable Living Areas of Bactrocera tsuneonis(Miyake)in China Based on the MaxEnt Model

作　　者：杜丽燕 晏文杰 彭金凤 李亚迎 刘怀[1] 李广云 DU Liyan;YAN Wenjie;PENG Jinfeng;LI Yaying;LIU Huai;LI Guangyun(Key Laboratory of Agricultural Biosafety and Green Production of Upper Yangtze River(Ministry of Education)/College of Plant Protection,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China)

机构地区：[1]西南大学植物保护学院/长江上游农业生物安全与绿色生产教育部重点实验室,重庆400715

出　　处：《植物医学》2025年第1期28-36,共9页Plant Health and Medicine

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2022YFC2601000);重庆市科技局技术创新与应用发展专项(2024TIAD-KPX0104);重庆市博士后留渝资助项目。

摘　　要：为探究蜜柑大实蝇(Bactrocera tsuneonis)对我国柑橘产业造成的潜在威胁,通过其在全球的地理分布数据,采用MaxEnt模型对当前气候条件下和未来气候情景下蜜柑大实蝇在我国的适生区进行预测。结果发现,最暖季度降水量、温度变化方差对MaxEnt模型的累积贡献率最大,分别为64.5%和19.6%。在当前气候条件下,蜜柑大实蝇在我国适生区主要分布在南部和东部,其中重庆、贵州、江苏和广西,四川、福建的东部,湖南的西部,广东的北部,江西的中部地区等为高度适生区。在未来两种温室气体排放情景SSP126和SSP585下,适生区面积均增加,SSP126情景下分布中心由湖北向陕西迁移,SSP585情景下分布中心由湖北向甘肃迁移,总体有向北方和西北方扩增的趋势。本研究明确了蜜柑大实蝇未来在我国的潜在地理分布,为其监测和治理提供了理论依据。To explore the potential threat of Bactrocera tsuneonis in China's citrus industry,the MaxEnt model was used to predict the suitable habitat areas of B.tsuneonis in China under current climate conditions and future climate scenarios based onits global geographic distribution data.The results showed that the cumulative contribution of precipitation and temperature varianceinthe warmest quarter to the MaxEnt model was the largest,which was 64.5%and 19.6%,respectively.Under the current climate conditions,the suitable living areas of B.tsuneonis in China are mainly distributed in the south and east.Specifically,Chongqing,Guizhou,Jiangsu and Guangxi,eastern Sichuan and Fujian,western Hunan,northern Guangdong and central Jiangxi are highly suitable areas for this pest.Under the two greenhouse gas emission scenarios SSP126 and SSP585 in the future,the suitable living areas will increase,and the distribution center will migrate from Hubei to Shanxi under the SSP126 scenario,and from Hubei to Gansu under the SSP585 scenario,with an overall trend of expansion to the north and northwest.In this study,the potential geographical distribution of B.tsuneonis in China was predicted,providing a theoretical basis for the prevention and management of this pest.

关 键 词：蜜柑大实蝇 MaxEnt模型 适生区 影响因子 

分 类 号：S436.661[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]