中国陆地边境地区国土空间安全动态评价及预警优化研究  

Optimization of Dynamic Early Warning for Territorial Space Security in Land Border Areas of China

作　　者：马国斌 陆汝成 王鹏程[1] 黎亦云 MA Guobin;LU Rucheng;WANG Pengcheng;LI Yiyun(School of Natural Resources and Surveying and Mapping,Nanning Normal University,Nanning 530001,China;Key Laboratory of Environment Change and Resources Use in Beibu Gulf,Ministry of Education,Nanning 530001,China)

机构地区：[1]南宁师范大学自然资源与测绘学院,广西南宁530001 [2]北部湾环境演变与资源利用教育部重点实验室,广西南宁530001

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2025年第1期105-117,共13页China Land Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42061043,42261043)。

摘　　要：研究目的:探究中国陆地边境国土空间安全时空格局及预警特征,推动构建发展与安全统筹下的边疆安全体系与国家安全格局。研究方法:搭建国土空间安全研究框架,通过欧式贴近度、GM-Markov模型进行国土空间安全评价及预警预测,运用时间四象限模型开展分区优化。研究结果:(1)2003—2022年边境国土空间安全为较安全,预警指数由0.36降至0.23,各子系统的安全警度总体呈波动下降趋势,国土空间安全“轻警”状态呈现自西南边境向东北边境逐渐转移的态势。(2)2027年中国边境地区国土空间安全预警指数较2022年下降21.58%,地缘关系安全警度呈上升态势,结构安全警度降幅高达31.40%。(3)两两系统匹配下低—低集聚状态的地市数量占比均接近50%,处于高—高集聚状态的地市约占30%,表明系统间的匹配协调以“轻警”为主。研究结论:中国陆地边境地区国土空间安全区域差异性显著,设定国土空间安全稳定区、提升区与治理区并提出分区优化应对措施,对实现国家治理现代化乃至中国式现代化具有关键意义,为统筹边境地区安全与发展提供理论依据。The purpose of this paper is to explore the spatiotemporal patterns and early warning characteristics of territorial space security in land border areas,to promote the construction of the border security system and national security pattern under the coordination of development and security.The research methods are to establishing a research framework for territorial space security and to employ the European closeness degree and GM-Markov model for territorial space security evaluation and early warning predictions.Additionally,the time four quadrant model is utilized for zoning optimization.The results show that from 2003 to 2022,the territorial space security of border areas was relatively stable,with the warning index decreasing from 0.36 to 0.23.Each subsystem’s security warning level exhibited a fluctuating downward trend,while the“light alert”state of territorial space security gradually shifted from the southwest border to the northeast border.In 2027,the territorial space security warning index for the border areas of China is projected to decease by 21.58%compared to 2022,with geo-relationships’security warning on the rise and morphology and structure’s security warning decreasing by 31.40%.Approximately 50%of cities and municipalities are in the low-low agglomeration state under the coordination of both systems,while about 30%are in the high-high agglomeration state,suggesting that the two systems primarily operate in a“light alert”mode.In conclusion,there are significant regional disparities in terms of territorial space security within the border areas of China.To address this issue,it is important to establish dedicated zones for territorial space security and stability,upgrade these zones,and implement optimized zoning measures.These efforts are crucial for achieving modern national governance and,more specifically,the modernization of the Chinese style.This provides a theoretical foundation for promoting the harmonization of security and development in border regions.

关 键 词：国土空间安全 动态评价 预警优化 GM-Markov预测模型 中国陆地边境 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]