面向膳食结构升级的中国耕地种植管控分区研究  

Research on Cultivated Land Planting Control Zoning in China towards Dietary Structure Upgrading

作　　者：朱梦珂 柯新利 杜丹妮 ZHU Mengke;KE Xinli;DU Danni(School of Public Administration,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2025年第1期118-129,共12页China Land Science

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“面向乡村产业振兴的土地利用转型研究”(23&ZD113)。

摘　　要：研究目的:探析膳食结构升级背景下的中国耕地种植管控分区,为保障居民食物安全和优化耕地用途管制措施提供参考。研究方法:耕地需求预测模型及多维耕地种植管控紧迫性评估框架。研究结果:(1)长期内多情景耕地需求随人口发展呈下降趋势,短期内现状耕地难以满足人口峰值时多数情景下的膳食消费需求。(2)耕地种植管控紧迫性空间差异明显,紧迫性较高的区域集中在禀赋较高的粮食主产区,而西北和西南等地为多维劣势耕地聚集区域。(3)排除极端消费情景,为保证膳食结构升级中的口粮、饲料粮、重要农产品和间接食物需求,核心管制区、严格管制区、非粮调控区和综合管控区面积分别为6.17亿亩、11.52亿亩、1.70亿亩和7.21亿亩,且需对不同分区拟定差别化管控目标、管控强度和管控策略。研究结论:耕地种植管控分区是落实粮食安全和耕地保护的有效途径,将膳食结构升级融入耕地分区利用全过程,有利于在守稳粮食安全底线的同时推行“大食物观”理念,进而促进耕地长期可持续利用。The purpose of this paper is to explore the cultivated land planting control zoning under the background of dietary structure upgrading in China,to provide reference for ensuring residents’food security and optimizing cultivated land use control system.The research methods include cultivated land demand forecasting model and cultivated land planting control urgency assessment framework.The results show that:1)in the long run,the demand for cultivated land in multiple scenarios decreased with population development.In the short term,the current cultivated land may struggle to meet the dietary consumption demands at the peak of the population.2)The cultivated land planting control urgency(CLPCU)exhibits significant spatial variations.The regions with higher CLPCU are concentrated in the primary grain-producing areas,while the regions with lower CLPCU are concentrated in the northwest and southwest.3)Excluding the extreme consumption scenario,core control areas,strict control areas,non-grain control areas and comprehensive control areas cover 617 million mu,1.152 billion mu,170 million mu and 721 million mu,respectively;and it is necessary to formulate differentiated control objectives,control intensity and control strategies for different regions.In conclusion,cultivated land planting control zoning is an effective way to implement food security and cultivated land protection.Integrating dietary consumption upgrading demand into the process of cultivated land zoning is conducive to promoting the concept of“big food”and the long-term sustainable use of cultivated land.

关 键 词：膳食结构升级 耕地种植管控 多情景分析 分区管控 

分 类 号：F301.21[经济管理—产业经济]