大食物观下中国食物安全的综合评价:基于熵权TOPSIS模型  

Comprehensive evaluation of China’s food security under the greater food approach:Based on entropy TOPSIS model

作　　者：杨月元 祁春节[1] 董亚妮 顾雨檬 YANG Yueyuan;QI Chunjie;DONG Yani;GU Yumeng(College of Economics and Management,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China;Hubei Rural Development Research Center,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,武汉430070 [2]湖北农村发展研究中心,武汉430070

出　　处：《中国农业大学学报》2025年第4期230-243,共14页Journal of China Agricultural University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(23BJY155);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2662024YJ004);国家现代农业(柑橘)产业技术体系(MATS)专项经费(CARS-26-06BY)。

摘　　要：为探究中国食物安全的发展水平,在大食物观视角下,基于全产业链供给系统,构建保障食物安全的理论逻辑分析框架,从可供性、可得性、可达性、可控性、可补(替)性和可持续性等6个关键维度形成科学、全面的中国食物安全综合评价指标体系,运用熵权TOPSIS模型,对2010—2022年中国食物安全水平进行评价。结果表明:1)大食物观下中国食物安全的总体发展水平稳步提升,其变化过程可分为缓慢上升和快速上升2个阶段,呈现从非均衡发展至均衡发展的态势。2)从中国食物安全结构演变来看6个维度的安全水平均呈现上升态势。其中,可供性水平近年来低于食物安全水平,制约了食物生产;可得性和可达性水平与食物安全水平增长幅度相近,对中国食物安全的贡献度一般;可控性水平上升幅度最大,成为中国食物安全水平提升的主要拉动力;可补(替)性水平呈现逐年上升趋势,与食物安全水平变化趋势基本一致,成为维持和提升中国食物安全水平的关键因素;可持续性水平呈现“U”型上升趋势,尤其是2020年以来,跃升为推动中国食物安全水平提升的第一驱动力。因此,为进一步提升中国食物安全水平,需要重点从强化耕地保护,加强多元化资源开发利用;稳定农业劳动力供给,提升农业劳动力素质,优化农业劳动力结构;高效利用国际市场资源等方面发力。In order to investigate the development level of China’s food security,this study constructed a theoretical and logical analytical framework for food security based on the supply system of the whole industrial chain under the greater food approach,formed a scientific and comprehensive evaluation index system of China’s food security in six key dimensions,such as availability,accessibility,reachability,controllability,substitutability and sustainability,and utilized the entropy-weighted TOPSIS model to evaluate China’s food security level from 2010 to 2022.The results show that:1)The overall development level of China’s food security under the greater food approach has been steadily increasing,and the process of change can be divided into two stages,which are slow increasing stage and rapid increasing stage.It shows a trend from unbalanced development to balanced development.2)From the point of view of the structural evolution of China’s food security,it is discovered that the levels of the above six dimensions are all showing an overall increasing trend.The level of availability is lower than that of food security in recent years,which has restricted food production;the levels of both accessibility and reachability have grown at similar rate to the food security level,which contributes to China’s food security in general;the level of controllability has risen the most,becoming the main pulling force for China’s food security;the level of substitutability shows a year-on-year upward trend,which is basically in line with the trend of changes in the level of food security and has become a key factor in maintaining and improving China’s food security;the sustainability level has exhibited a"U"-shaped upward trend,particularly since 2020,when it has emerged as the primary driving force behind the enhancement of China’s food security standards.In conclusion,it is necessary to focus on strengthening the protection of arable land and the development and utilization of diversified resources,stabilizing t

关 键 词：大食物观 食物安全 评价 熵权TOPSIS模型 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]