农业绿色发展对耕地利用碳排放强度的影响机制和空间效应  

Impact mechanism and spatial effects of agricultural green development on carbon emission intensity of cultivated land use

作　　者：付舒斐 吕添贵 朱丽萌[3] 赵巧 陈安莹 FU Shufei;LYU Tiangui;ZHU Limeng;ZHAO Qiao;CHEN Anying(School of Applied Economics(School of Digital Economics),Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China;School of Public Finance&Public Administration,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China;Academy of Economic and Social Development,Jiangxi University of Economics and Finance,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学应用经济学院(数字经济学院),南昌330013 [2]江西财经大学财税与公共管理学院,南昌330013 [3]江西财经大学经济与社会发展研究院,南昌330013

出　　处：《中国农业大学学报》2025年第4期286-299,共14页Journal of China Agricultural University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42261049);江西省自然科学基金项目(20232BAB203061);江西财经大学第十八届学生科研课题(20231019154104944)。

摘　　要：为探究农业绿色发展对耕地利用的减碳效应,本研究通过构建农业绿色发展影响耕地利用碳排放强度的理论分析框架,采用基准回归模型、中介效应模型与空间杜宾模型等,基于中国2001—2022年31个省份的面板数据(统计数据未含港澳台地区,下同),分析农业绿色发展对耕地利用碳排放强度的影响机制和空间效应。结果表明:1)农业绿色发展整体水平由2001年0.154增长至2022年0.397,区域间粮食主销区、产销平衡区和粮食主产区呈依次递减格局;2)耕地利用碳排放强度由2001年3.264 t/万元下降至2022年0.717 t/万元,区域间粮食主产区、粮食主销区和产销平衡区呈依次递减趋势;3)农业绿色发展能直接降低耕地利用碳排放强度,并通过促进农业绿色生产技术应用间接抑制耕地利用碳排放强度;4)农业绿色发展对耕地利用碳排放强度的抑制作用存在空间溢出效应。据此提出,未来应加强区域间农业绿色合作、优化耕地精准降碳实践和推动低碳生产技术应用,以形成空间联合控碳格局。To explore the carbon reduction effect of agricultural green development on cultivated land use,this study constructs a theoretical analysis framework to analyze the impact of agricultural green development on the carbon emission intensity of cultivated land use.Using the benchmark regression models,mediation effect models,and spatial Durbin models,and based on panel data from 31 provinces from 2001 to 2022(Data do not include those of Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan.The same below)this study analyzes the impact mechanism and spatial effects of agricultural green development on the carbon emission intensity of cultivated land use.The results indicate that:1)The overall level of agricultural green development increased from 0.154 in 2001 to 0.397 in 2022.There was a decreasing pattern among regions including the main grain sales area,the production and sales balance area,and the main grain production area;2)The carbon emission intensity of cultivated land use decreased from 3.264 t/10000 yuan in 2001 to 0.717 t/10000 yuan in 2022.There was a decreasing trend among regions in the main grain production areas,main grain sales areas,and production sales balance areas;3)Green development in agriculture reduced the carbon emission intensity of cultivated land use significantly.Green development in agriculture suppressed the carbon emission intensity of cultivated land use by promoting the application of green production technologies in agriculture;4)There was a spatial spillover effect of the inhibitory effect of green agricultural development on the carbon emission intensity of cultivated land use.Based on the above findings,this study proposes that it is necessary to strengthen inter-regional agricultural green cooperation,optimize precise carbon reduction practices on cultivated land,and promote the application of low-carbon production technologies to form a spatial joint carbon control pattern in the future.

关 键 词：农业绿色发展 耕地利用碳排放强度 农业绿色生产技术 空间效应 MOA模型 

分 类 号：F323.211[经济管理—产业经济]