中国科技服务业发展水平测度与时空演化探析  

Research on the Development Level Measurement and Spatio-temporal Evolution of China’s Technology Service Industry

作　　者：胡续楠 高维龙 王金翎[1] Hu Xunan;Gao Weilong;Wang Jinling(Changchun University,School of Economics,Jilin,Changchun,130022;Jilin University,Institute of National Development and Security Studies,Jilin,Changchun,130012)

机构地区：[1]长春大学经济学院,吉林长春130022 [2]吉林大学国家发展与安全研究院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《科技智囊》2025年第2期10-18,共9页Think Tank of Science & Technology

基　　金：吉林省教育厅社会科学研究项目“数字乡村建设驱动吉林省农业高质量发展机制研究”(JJKH20241212SK)。

摘　　要：[研究目的]全面评估中国科技服务业的发展水平,揭示各省份科技服务业在不同空间和时间维度上的演变规律,为提升科技服务业发展水平、优化科技服务业的空间布局、促进区域协调发展提供理论支持和决策参考。[研究方法]基于2010—2021年除西藏、香港、澳门、台湾地区外的30个省(区、市)的面板数据,从科技服务业规模水平、创新投入水平、发展潜力、数字化发展环境和政策支持环境五个方面出发,构建科学合理的评价指标体系。运用熵值法、非参数核密度估计和探索空间数据分析(ESDA)对中国科技服务业发展水平进行测度,并探讨其时空演化特征。[研究结论]在总体层面上,中国科技服务业发展规模不断扩大,呈现持续增长的态势。但在区域层面上,具有明显的空间分异性特征。第一,东部地区由于其经济基础、科技资源和政策优势,科技服务业发展水平远高于中西部地区。第二,中国科技服务业发展存在明显的绝对β收敛趋势,且西部地区具有较高收敛速度。第三,科技服务业发展呈现显著的空间集聚特征,但由于区域间合作机制缺失和要素竞争,科技服务业发展存在负向空间溢出效应。未来应通过政策引导、人才培养、科技创新、区域合作等手段,驱动中国科技服务业高质量均衡发展。[Research purpose]TThis study aims to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the development level of China's technology service industry and reveal the evolutionary patterns of this industry across different provinces in both spatial and temporal dimensions.The findings offer theoretical support and decision-making references for enhancing the development level of the technology service industry,optimizing its spatial layout,and promoting coordinated regional development.[Research method]Based on the panel data of 30 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)except Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan from 2010 to 2021,this study constructs a scientific and rational evaluation index system from five aspects:the scale of the technology service industry,innovation input level,development potential,digital development environment,and policy support environment.This study employs the entropy method,nonparametric kernel density estimation,and exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA)to measure the development level of China's technology service industry and investigate its spatio-temporal evolution characteristics.[Research conclusion]On the aggregate level,the scale of China's technology service industry continues to expand,exhibiting a sustained growth trend.However,at the regional level,there are distinct spatial heterogeneity characteristics.Firstly,the eastern region,with its economic foundation,technological resources,and policy advantages,has a significantly higher development level of the technology service industry compared to the central and western regions.Secondly,the development of China's technology service industry shows a pronounced absoluteβconvergence trend,with the western region having a higher convergence rate.Thirdly,the development of the technology service industry exhibits significant spatial agglomeration characteristics.However,due to the lack of regional cooperation mechanisms and factor competition,there is a negative spatial spillover effect in the development of the technology service i

关 键 词：科技服务业 熵值法 非参数核密度估计 绝对Β收敛 空间相关性 

分 类 号：F719[经济管理—产业经济] F062.3