一揽子化债方案的质效评估与展望  

作　　者：蒋帅 王浩宇 

机构地区：[1]中国建设银行建行研修中心(研究院) [2]中国建设银行股份有限公司博士后工作站

出　　处：《工程经济》2024年第11期57-69,共13页ENGINEERING ECONOMY

摘　　要：2023年7月中央出台一揽子化债方案以来,地方债务问题有所缓解。本文从流动性和规模两方面评估了当前化债政策的成效,数据结果显示,从流动性角度来看,地方政府债务问题得到了有效的缓解,信用利差压降明显并逐步回归合理区间,地方政府再融资压力得到充分缓解;但从规模上来看,地方债务规模仍然庞大,中央政府、地方政府债务率仍处于惯性上升区间,“遏增量、化存量”任务依然艰巨。因此,推动债务重定价是进一步化解地方债务风险的重点。本文就此测算了货币政策配合财政政策化解债务问题的深度和节奏。最后讨论了在化债背景下商业银行的应对策略。Since the implement of a comprehensive debt restructuring plan by the central government in July 2023,local government debt issues have been alleviated.This article assesses the effectiveness of the current debt restructuring policy from the perspectives of liquidity and scale.The results indicate that local debt issues have been effectively alleviated in a liquidity view,with a significant decline in credit spreads.The refinancing pressure on local governments has been relieved.However,in terms of scale,local government debt remains substantial,and both central and local government debt-to-GDP ratios are still in a period of inertia.The task of“curbing increments and resolving stock”remains daunting.Therefore,debt repricing is a focus for further mitigating local debt risks.This article tests the depth and pace of debt issue resolution through the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies.Finally,it discusses the strategies of commercial banks in the context of debt restructuring.

关 键 词：地方债 债务可持续 货币政策财政政策协同 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]