中非贸易韧性、空间分异及其影响因素研究  

Study on the China-Africa Trade Resilience,Spatial Variations and Its Influencing Factors

作　　者：张巧文[1,2] Zhang Qiaowen

机构地区：[1]浙江师范大学经济与管理学院(中非国际商学院) [2]浙江师范大学非洲研究院,金华321004

出　　处：《非洲研究》2024年第1期171-191,282,共22页African Studies

基　　金：浙师大-金华市校地合作协同创新重大课题“打造中非合作金华样板研究”(编号:ZSJHZD20240402);2024年国家社科基金青年项目“中国对非洲直接投资赋能双边价值链升级的机制与效应研究”(编号:24CGJ034);全国影响力建设智库专项重大课题“全球南方视域下中非共建现代化路径研究”(编号:ZKZD2024011)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：在国际地缘政治和经济关系日趋紧张,逆境事件密集发生的背景下,中非贸易合作展现出强大的韧性。以新冠疫情这一重大突发公共卫生事件为例,结合经济韧性理论,本文利用2021年1—12月非洲18个样本国家与中国的贸易数据,从抵抗性和恢复性两个维度探讨了中非贸易韧性绩效,研究发现中非贸易韧性存在明显的空间分异现象,且贸易抵抗性较贸易恢复性呈现更大的空间差异。其中,非洲国家贸易对象集中度、物流发展水平以及医疗发展水平对中非贸易抵抗性解释度最高;对贸易恢复性最具解释力的因素是非洲国家外贸依存度、疫情严峻程度、经济发展水平。非洲国家互联网的普及水平对贸易抵抗性和恢复性均具有较大的影响。本文丰富了贸易韧性领域的研究,也为新形势下中非深化经贸合作提供了政策启示。Amid escalating international geopolitical and economic tensions and frequent adverse events,China-Africa trade cooperation has demonstrated strong resilience.This paper analyzes trade data from January to December 2021 between China and 18 African countries,exploring the resilience of China-Africa trade in terms of resistance and recoverability.The study identifies significant spatial variations in trade resilience,with greater disparities in trade resistance than in recoverability across different regions.Key factors contributing to trade resistance include the concentration of trade partners,the level of logistics development,and the level of medical development in African countries.Conversely,the degree of dependence on foreign trade,the severity of the pandemic,and the economic development level of these countries are the most significant factors affecting trade recoverability.Additionally,the prevalence of the internet in African countries significantly influences both aspects of trade resilience.This research contributes to the field of trade resilience and offers policy insights for enhancing economic and trade cooperation between China and Africa under new circumstances.

关 键 词：贸易韧性 空间分异 贸易开放 基础设施 中非贸易合作 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易] F754[经济管理—产业经济]