试析西非地区军事政变回潮原因及影响  

Causes and Influences of the Resurgence of Military Coups in West Africa

作　　者：孟瑾 Meng Jin

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所(中国非洲研究院),北京100101

出　　处：《非洲研究》2024年第1期23-40,276-277,共20页African Studies

基　　金：中国社会科学院学科建设登峰战略重点学科“世界经济学”资助项目(编号:DF2023ZD34)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：军人集团因其较强的民族主义意识和较高的政治敏感度在后殖民时期非洲国家的政治发展进程中发挥着重要作用。军人集团通过使用武力接管国家最高权力的行为时有发生。2020年以来,西非地区军事政变高达6次,军事政变回潮趋势突出。国家治理能力不足和政府合法性下降是此次军事政变回潮的结构性因素。军队维护国家利益的认知和恐怖主义威胁军队的团体利益是军人集团发动政变的主要动机。(次)区域组织未能有效发挥遏制作用,降低了政变成本。域外大国的长期干预和安全投入下降助推了政变的发生。此轮回潮不仅改变了相关国家的政治权力结构,打破其政治发展的自然进程,而且威胁西非国家政权安全,加重地区国家间矛盾分歧。此外,政变回潮推动了域外大国在西非地区影响力的消长,地区安全架构面临重组。Because of their strong nationalist consciousness and political sensitivity,military groups played an important role in the political development of African countries in the post-colonial period.Military groups took over the state's central institutions through the use of force from time to time.Since 2020,there have been as many as six military coups in West Africa,and the resurgence of military coups is prominent.The lack of national governance capacity and the decline of government legitimacy are structural factors for the resurgence of coups.Safeguarding the interests of the country and their own interests under the threat of terrorism constitutes the main motivation for military groups to launch coups.The(sub)regional organizations failed to effectively exert its containment effect,reducing the cost of the coup.The long-term intervention and reduction of security investment by major countries outside the region have contributed to the outbreak of the coup.This resurgence of military coups has not only changed the political power structure of the relevant countries and disrupted the natural process of their political development,but also has threatened the regime security of regional countries.In addition,the resurgence of coups has driven the changes of influence of major countries in West Africa,leading to a restructuring of the regional security architecture.

关 键 词：军事政变 西非地区 军政关系 政权安全 

分 类 号：D74[政治法律—政治学] E4[政治法律—中外政治制度]