基于IVM-CF耦合模型的贵定县滑坡地质灾害易发性评价  

Evaluation of landslide geological hazard susceptibility in Guiding County based on IVM-CF coupling model

作　　者：梁峰 江攀和 LIANG Feng;JIANG Panhe(Guizhou Province Bureau of Geology and Mineral Exploration and Development 114 Geological Brigade,Zunyi 563000,Guizhou,China;Geological Brigade NO.102 of Guizhou Provincial Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources,Zunyi 563000,Guizhou,China;Geological Brigade NO.106 of Guizhou Provincial Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources,Zunyi 563000,Guizhou,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州省地质矿产勘查开发局114地质大队,贵州遵义563000 [2]贵州省地矿局一○二地质大队,贵州遵义563000 [3]贵州省地矿局一○六地质大队,贵州遵义563000

出　　处：《水利水电技术(中英文)》2024年第S2期669-677,共9页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：贵州省贵定县地质灾害详细调查及风险评价项目(MCHC-ZG20211007)

摘　　要：基于贵定县1∶5万地质灾害风险详查,结合贵定县区域地质环境条件及滑坡地质灾害发育分布特征,通过相关性分析最终选取了地形坡度、平面曲率、地貌类型、距断层距离、工程岩组、斜坡结构、距水系距离、距道路距离等8个评价因子,采用信息量模型(Information Value Model,IVM)、确定性系数法(Certainty Factor,CF)及IVM-CF耦合模型开展贵定县滑坡地质灾害易发性评价研究。结果表明:IVM-CF耦合模型的精度优于单一评价模型,AUC值为0.770;耦合模型评价结果准确性更高,耦合模型将研究区划分为:低易发区面积190.70 km^(2),占比11.72%,中易发区面积435.86 km^(2),占比26.79%,高易发区面积613.80 km^(2),占比37.72%,极高易发区面积386.79 km^(2),占比23.77%,其中高和极高易发区发育滑坡145处,占比90.63%;极高及高易发分区内地形切割较为强烈,地质构造复杂,水系较发育,人类工程活动(道路切坡)较强烈。研究成果可为贵定县国土空间规划及地质灾害防治提供参考。Based on a detailed investigation of 1∶50000 geological hazard risks in Guiding County,eight evaluation factors were ultimately selected through correlation analysis combined with the regional geological environment conditions and the distribution characteristics of landslide geological hazards,including terrain slope,plane curvature,landform type,distance from faults,engineering rock formations,slope structure,distance from water systems,and distance from roads.The Certainty Factor(CF)and IVM-CF coupled model were used to conduct a study on the susceptibility assessment of landslide geological hazards in Guiding County.The result show that the accuracy of the IVM-CF coupled model is better than that of a single evaluation model,with an AUC value of 0.770;The coupling model has higher accuracy in evaluating the result.The coupling model divides the research area into:low susceptibility area of 190.70 km^(2),accounting for 11.72%,medium susceptibility area of 435.86 km^(2),accounting for 26.79%,high susceptibility area of 613.80 km^(2),accounting for 37.72%,and extremely high susceptibility area of 386.79 km^(2),accounting for 23.77%.Among them,145 landslides are developed in high and extremely high susceptibility areas,accounting for 90.63%.The terrain within the extremely high and high-risk areas is strongly cut,with complex geological structures,well-developed water systems,and strong human engineering activities(road slope cutting).The research result can provide reference for the spatial planning of Guiding County and the prevention and control of geological disasters.

关 键 词：滑坡 信息量模型(IVM) 确定性系数(CF) 耦合模型 易发性评价 贵定县 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]