区域水资源复合系统均衡评价及障碍因子分析  

Evaluation of equilibrium of regional water resources complex system and analysis of obstacle factors

作　　者：张粉霞 于国荣[1] 张代青[1] ZHANG Fenxia;YU Guorong;ZHANG Daiqing(Kunming University of Science and Technology School of Electric Power Engineering,Kunming 650500,Yunnan,China;Jianghuai Water Conservancy Survey of Henan Province,Nanyang 473000,Henan,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学电力工程学院,云南昆明650500 [2]河南省江淮水利勘测设计有限公司,河南南阳473000

出　　处：《水利水电技术(中英文)》2024年第S2期260-267,共8页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51469009)

摘　　要：水资源空间均衡是我国水资源综合管理的根本原则,探讨水资源、社会、经济和生态环境复合系统的均衡评价及障碍因子,是研究水资源空间均衡的重要内容。根据水资源复合系统的特点,建立了基于水资源-社会-经济-生态系统的综合评价指标体系,采用五元联系数及耦合协调度评价模型,对云南省2010—2022年水资源复合系统均衡状况进行评价,并进一步采用减法集对势对影响其均衡状况的障碍因子进行诊断分析。研究结果表明:(1)2010—2022年云南省水资源复合系统的协调发展状态在持续改善,系统均衡程度在逐渐增强。然而,距离优质均衡还有很大的改进空间,且随着社会经济的快速增长,水资源问题越发严峻,时刻面临着失衡的风险。(2)影响水资源复合系统均衡状况的障碍子系统为社会系统,障碍指标为人均用水量和人均生活用水量。Spatial equilibrium of water resources is the fundamental principle of integrated water resources management in China,and exploring the equilibrium evaluation and obstacle factors of the composite system of water resources,society,economy and ecosystems is an important content of studying the spatial equilibrium of water resources.According to the characteristics of the water resources composite system,a comprehensive evaluation index system based on water resources-social-economic-ecological system is established,and a five-element linkage number and coupled coordination degree evaluation model are used to evaluate the equilibrium condition of the water resources composite system in Yunnan Province from 2010 to 2022,and further Diagnostic analysis of the obstacle factors affecting its equilibrium status is carried out by using subtractive set-pair potential.The result of the study show that:(1)the coordinated development of the water resources composite system in Yunnan Province from 2010 to 2022 is continuously improving,and the degree of system equilibrium is gradually increasing.However,there is still a lot of room for improvement from the quality equilibrium,and with the rapid social and economic growth,the water resources problem is more and more serious,always facing the risk of imbalance.(2)The obstacle sub-system affecting the equilibrium of the water resources complex system is the social system,and the obstacle indicators are per capita water consumption and per capita domestic water consumption.

关 键 词：水资源复合系统均衡 障碍因子 五元联系数 耦合协调度 减法集对势 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]