近20年塔里木河流域植被变化及与气候因子的关系  

Vegetation Changes in Tarim River Basin over Past 20 Years and Their Relationship with Climate Factors

作　　者：岳胜如 王伦澈 曹茜[1] 孙嘉[1] 崔利芳 Yue Shengru;Wang Lunche;Cao Qian;Sun Jia;Cui Lifang(School of Geography and Information Engineering,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430078,China;College of Water Resources and Architecture Engineering,Tarim University,Alaer 843300,China;School of Geography and Tourism,Huanggang Normal University,Huanggang 438000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学地理与信息工程学院,湖北武汉430078 [2]塔里木大学水利与建筑工程学院,新疆阿拉尔843300 [3]黄冈师范学院地理与旅游学院,湖北黄冈438000

出　　处：《地球科学》2025年第1期33-45,共13页Earth Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(Nos.41975044,42001314);湖北省自然科学基金项目(No.2023AFB020);兵团科技计划项目(No.2024AB064)。

摘　　要：为了解西北“暖湿化”进程中气候因素对塔里木河流域植被变化的驱动作用,基于线性回归、变异系数、Person相关系数、Hurst指数和偏导数方法,利用MODIS卫星遥感数据和气候数据对塔里木河流域植被变化的气候驱动机制进行定量评估.结果表明:该流域植被最优长势和生产力水平呈波动上升趋势,指数NDVI、EVI、NPP增速分别为0.036 4/10a、0.023 8/10a、12.606 1 g C/(m^(2)·10a).Hurst指数显示,研究区大部分区域植被存在持续变化的不确定性问题,持续改善区域分别占流域面积的19.7%、18.7%和6.1%.流域尺度上,气候因素对NDVI、EVI、NPP的贡献分别为0.0016/10a、0.0010/10a、2.8019 g C/(m^(2)·10a).相较于气温,降水是影响植被变化的主要气候因子;辐射对植被变化有抑制作用.气候变化对植被最优长势变化的贡献有限,却促进了植被生产力的明显改善,结果揭示了塔里木河流域植被变化及气候驱动的空间特征.To understand the role of climatic factors in driving vegetation changes in the Tarim River Basin during the"warming and humidification"process in Northwest China,based on the linear regression,coefficient of variation,Person correlation coefficient,Hurst index and partial derivative methods,the climate-driven mechanism of vegetation change in the Tarim River Basin was quantitatively evaluated using MODIS satellite remote sensing data and meteorological data.It is found that the optimal vegetation growth and productivity levels in the basin showed a fluctuating upward trend,and the index NDVI,EVI,and NPP growth rates were 0.0364/10a,0.0238/10a,and 12.6061 gC/(m^(2)∙10a),respectively.The Hurst index shows that the study area had the problem of uncertainty of continuous change in vegetation,and the areas of continuous improvement accounted for 19.7%,18.7%,and 6.1%of the watershed area,respectively.At the watershed scale,the contributions of climatic factors to NDVI,EVI,and NPP were 0.0016/10a,0.0010/10a,and 2.8019 gC/(m^(2)∙10a),respectively.Precipitation was the main climatic factor affecting vegetation change compared to air temperature;radiation had an inhibitory effect on vegetation change.Climate change contributed limitedly to the changes in optimal vegetation growth,but promoted significant improvements in vegetation productivity.The results reveal the spatial characteristics of vegetation change and climate-driven changes in the Tarim River Basin.

关 键 词：塔里木河流域 植被变化 驱动机制 定量评估 气候变化 

分 类 号：P237[天文地球—摄影测量与遥感]