区域产业结构升级与碳排放协调发展路径的动力学分析与策略研究  

Dynamic Analysis and Strategy Research on the Coordinated Development Pathway ofRegional Industrial Structure Upgrading and Carbon Emission Reduction

作　　者：李堂军[1] 肖晓蕾 LI Tangjun;XIAO Xiaolei(College of Economics and Management,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao,Shandong 266590,China)

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学经济管理学院,山东青岛266590

出　　处：《山东科技大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第1期92-103,共12页Journal of Shandong University of Science and Technology(Social Sciences)

摘　　要：选取山东省2006—2022年的面板数据,利用超效率SBM模型,测算碳排放效率值;并基于系统动力学方法,从经济、社会、环境、技术等方面,以产业结构升级和碳排放效率协调发展为目标,分析因果关系,构建动态仿真模型,情景模拟不同政策路径。研究发现,2006—2022年间山东省产业结构升级指数稳定上升,碳排放效率在2012年前后先降后升;公众关注度、成果转化率和技术吸收转化能力是促进山东省产业结构升级指数和碳排放效率协调发展的关键因素,而市场需求是制约因素。针对山东省在碳排放上的实际情况,较为合适的发展路径是增强社会意识、加速科技成果应用、强化企业技术创新能力,以及控制市场需求以平衡经济发展和环境保护。Using panel data spanning from 2006 to 2022 in Shandong Province,this study calculates the carbon emission efficiency value with the aid of the super-efficiency SBM model.Meanwhile,based on the system dynamics method,the paper analyzes the causal relationship between industrial structure upgrading and carbon emission efficiency,considering various aspects such as economy,society,environment,technology,etc..To this end,a dynamic simulation model is constructed to simulate different policy pathways under various scenarios.The findings reveal that(1)During the period of 2006—2022,Shandong Province experienced a steady rise in its industrial structure upgrading index,while carbon emission efficiency initially decreased and then rose around 2012;(2)Key factors,including public attention,result conversion rate and technology absorption and conversion capacity,propel the coordinated development of industrial structure upgrading and carbon emission efficiency in Shandong Province,while market demand emerges as a constraining factor.The more suitable development pathway for Shandong Province is to foster social awareness,accelerate the application of scientific and technological results as well as strengthen the technological innovation capability of enterprises so as to manage market demand effectively and balance economic growth and environmental protection.

关 键 词：产业结构升级 碳排放效率 系统动力学 碳达峰 碳中和 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学] N941.3[自然科学总论—系统科学]