农村劳动力非农转移对耕地“非粮化”的影响——基于省级面板数据的实证分析  

Influence of non-agriculture transfer of rural labor force on“non-grain”cultivated land:Empirical analysis based on provincial panel data

作　　者：杨国永[1,2] 王朝晖 杨朝钦 谢钊 YANG Guoyong;WANG Zhaohui;YANG Chaoqin;XIE Zhao(School of Public Administration and Law,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350002,China;Fujian Rural Development Think Tank,Fuzhou 350002,China;College of Public Administration,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学公共管理与法学院,福州350002 [2]福建农村发展智库,福州350002 [3]华中农业大学公共管理学院,武汉430070

出　　处：《中国农业大学学报》2025年第3期259-271,共13页Journal of China Agricultural University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(20BGL240)。

摘　　要：为厘清农村劳动力转移对耕地“非粮化”的影响机制,基于2006—2022年全国省级面板数据,运用面板双向固定效应模型和调节效应模型,研究农村劳动力非农转移对耕地“非粮化”的影响。结果表明:1)农村劳动力非农转移能够显著促进耕地“非粮化”;2)农业生产性服务和粮食价格均能够在劳动力非农转移和耕地“非粮化”之间起显著的负向调节作用;3)农村劳动力非农转移对耕地“非粮化”的影响效应在粮食主产区和非粮食主产区截然相反,而农业生产性服务和粮食价格在两区域中发挥的调节效应也有所差异。因此,为实现耕地“非粮化”向“趋粮化”转变,应当在农村劳动力非农转移背景下加速要素替代,培育新型农业经营主体、完善农业生产性服务体系和种粮补贴,适当提升粮食最低收购价格。In order to clarify the impact of rural labor transfer on the“non-grain”of cultivated land,based on the national provincial panel data from 2006 to 2022,the impact of rural labor transfer on the“non-grain conversion”of cultivated land was investigated by using the bi-directional fixed effect model and the adjustment effect model.The results show that:1)The non-agricultural transfer of rural labor force significantly promotes the“non-grain”of cultivated land.2)Both agricultural productive services and grain prices play a significant negative regulating role between the non-agricultural labor transfer and the“non grain”of cultivated land.3)The effect of non-agricultural transfer of rural labor on the“non-grain”of cultivated land is completely opposite in the main grain producing areas and non-grain producing areas,and the regulatory effects of agricultural productive services and grain prices are also different between the two regional samples.Therefore,in order to realize the transformation of cultivated land from"non-grain"to“grain oriented”,it is necessary to accelerate the replacement of factors under the background of non-farm transfer of rural labor force,cultivate new agricultural operators,improve the agricultural production service system and grain subsidies,and appropriately increase the minimum purchase price of grain.

关 键 词：农村劳动力非农转移 耕地“非粮化” 农业生产性服务 粮食价格 调节效应 

分 类 号：F301.21[经济管理—产业经济]